Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Juvenile Justice Essay Example for Free
Juvenile Justice Essay Crimes are usually assumed to have been committed by adults, unfortunately, in todayââ¬â¢s society; crimes are committed by juveniles at a growing rate. Maybe juveniles are viewing too many violent television shows or movies, playing too many violent video games, or maybe juveniles are committing crimes out of boredom. Nevertheless, the pertinent issue is the fact that juveniles are participating in the commission of criminal activity at an adult level. Juveniles are no longer stealing candy bars from the local grocery store, but they are committing violent crimes against other people. Even more astounding is the fact that these same juvenile offenders are walking away with only probation as their punishment. For the most part, juveniles commit offenses pertaining to property, public nuisances, and underage drug and alcohol related crimes. Violent crimes against other persons such as assault and battery and murder are now included in the list of crimes committed by juveniles (Torbet, 1996). In order to understand why specific crimes are committed, one must carefully examine the juvenile offender. Juvenile offenders are both male and female. Some come from broken or single-parent homes lacking adequate supervision of the juvenile during the evening hours. Some juveniles are suffering from an undiagnosed psychological disorder whereby making it difficult for the juvenile to understand the consequences of his or her criminal actions. Finally, some juveniles have become associated with local gangs or gang members as a means of joining the group. Probation is a necessary factor within the juvenile justice system. There is however, the lingering question as to what crimes constitute a probationary sentence and what crimes mandate incarceration. First time offenders have almost always been guaranteed probation as a means of scaring the juvenile into straightening out their life (Gaines Miller, 2008). Juveniles having committed petty larceny, underage drinking violations, and simple assaults may also be good candidates for probation, but juveniles who have committed felonies should not be afforded probation. Juvenile probation enacts specific mandates in order to retrain and discipline the offender for his or her wrongdoing against society. Community service and attending school are most common requirements of probation. Some courts even order the juvenile to pay restitution to the victims. Curfews are strictly enforced as are daily or weekly reporting to the assigned probation officer (Torbet, 1996). In certain cases, substance abuse counseling and attending groups such as narcotics anonymous or alcoholics anonymous are provisioned. Counseling is generally enforced as a condition of probation and may include anger management classes and social skills building therapy (Gaines Miller, 2008). If a juvenile fails to meet any provisions set forth by the probation officer, the juvenileââ¬â¢s probation could ultimately be revoked. It is difficult to combat or devise a universal solution to the juvenile delinquency problem in this country. Many programs have been created in order to aid the juvenile justice system by attempting to discourage repeat offenders. Some courts may find it necessary to require random urinalysis screenings of any or all juvenile offenders. Juvenile probation officers may discover in the course of monitoring certain juveniles that family counseling may be necessary in order to provide the juvenile with structure and stability. In more severe cases, it could be suggested that the juvenile may need to be removed from the home and placed into foster care in order to protect the juvenile from imminent danger created by addicted parents or crime filled neighborhoods. The juvenile justice system is in dire need of reorganization, and the best starting point would definitely be in the juvenile probation department.
Monday, August 5, 2019
Potential of CARs to Supplement Indias Energy Imports
Potential of CARs to Supplement Indias Energy Imports CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Indian economy has grown at a rapid pace in the last five years and so has the demand for energy of a billion people. India imports 70% of its domestic crude oil requirements. The bulk of Indias oil imports come from West Asia. The supply routes pass through the choke point of Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in these will severely impact our national interest. Hence there is a need to diversify our supply sources in order to reduce our dependence on Gulf oil. Central Asian Region being rich in energy resources and located in our extended neighbourhood offer a tempting prospect. The CARs situated on the eastern flank of the Caspian Sea have significant oil and natural gas reserves to be considered as a possible source of diversification for countries heavily dependent on energy imports from West Asia and elsewhere . While estimates of reserves vary widely across different sources, there is a consensus that the region has much potential. Energy is the engine of economic growth. Availability of energy is the key to sustainable development, and has a direct impact in most aspects of our daily life. Inadequacy of energy supply affects very adversely vital and essential requirements of any society. Hence, there is an urgent need to enhance substantially the energy availability at a rapid pace so that aspirations of those who have remained at the fringes of development are able to benefit from access to this important input. The Central Asian Republics comprising of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan encompass the vast geo- political space north of India. When part of the USSR, the region had stability and was thus of little interest to the international world order. Relations with India were determined with the framework of Indo-USSR relations as existed between New Delhi and Moscow. The post USSR environment has changed all this, requiring New Delhi to re- establish relations with the five newly independent nation- states on the basis of new realities. It is remarkable that while energy resources are getting increasingly scarce in the rest of the world, new oil fields are being discovered with great regularity in Central Asia. Some experts maintain that Central Asian resources may be difficult to reach because of it is the largest land mass in the world, which is land locked. This is both a challenge and an opportunity, because in todays technology driven world, it is not always necessary to transport material. This is the logic of investment abroad and organising production facilities there. India has long-standing historical ties with Central Asia that encompasses the political, cultural, economic and religious dimensions. The impact of regional developments in Central Asia on Indias history has been longstanding and substantial. According to Mr. Yashwant Sinha, Former Minister of External Affairs, Government of India, Indias increasing engagement with Central Asia is aimed at promoting peace and mutual prosperity. Central Asia can once again be a bridge between the East and West, if its neighbourhood is peaceful and stable, and if the only interference from outside is one of beneficial economic inputs. The bridge can contribute to peace and prosperity and energy security in the wider world too. METHODOLOGY Statement of the Problem To examine the potential of CARs to supplement Indias Energy Imports the possible routes through which Energy could flow to the South Asian Markets. Hypothesis Central Asian Republics as a region has been endowed with abundant energy resources. Their significance is due to their Geo-strategic loc as well as its rich energy deposits. The Geo- political developments in the region would perforce have an impact on India. Peace stability in Central Asia is an imperative to harness the abundant energy resources. The Central Asian region represents a tempting prospect for diversification of supply sources to India, being located in its extended neighbourhood. Justification of the Study Indian economy has changed gears after the historic decision of liberalisation in 1991. Globalisation coupled with liberalisation ha s brought about a sea change in our lives .India has made rapid strides in industrialisation , IT industry , Telecom , Education, service industry and infrastructure development. Our energy consumption has far outpaced our domestic production. Most of our crude imports come from Gulf countries. The supply routes are prone to disruption and can severely impact our national interest. Although we have started acquiring energy stakes in Africa we need to diversify our energy sources. While India is surrounded by energy rich neighbourhood-Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar access to supply energy from these remain elusive. Political compulsions and indifferent relations are an impediment to energy imports through Bangladesh and Pakistan. In Myanmar ONGC has acquired exploration acreages. However any gas finds could make transportation a challenge unless Bangladesh allows transit through its territory. In view of the above, energy imports from CARs in Indias extended neighbourhood needs to be critically examined in order to optimise the full potential of Indo-CAR energy cooperation. Scope This study seeks to focus on the potential of INDO- CAR energy cooperation and identify the possible routes of energy flow from CAR to India. Methods of Data Collection The means of data collection has been number of books and papers by various prominent Indian and foreign authors, newspapers and many other wide ranging array of sources. Various internet sites have also been browsed for data collection .Books and websites consulted are listed in the bibliography. Organisation of the Dissertation It is proposed to study the subject in the following manner:- Chapter I: Introduction. Chapter II: Emergence of CAR as Nation States and their Geo -Strategic significance. Chapter III: Indias Energy Sources. Chapter IV: Energy Potential of CAR. Chapter V: Interest of Global and Regional Players in Central Asia. Chapter VI: Challenges and Threats to Security of Central Asian Region. Chapter VII: India Central Asia Energy Cooperation. Chapter VIII: Indias Strategy. Chapter IX: Conclusion. CHAPTER II EMERGENCE OF CAR AS NATION STATES AND THEIR GEOSTRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE Emergence of CAR as Nation States Disintegration of former USSR was a momentous occasion unprecedented in scale and unanticipated by any power of the world, which ended the cold war and saw the emergence of a unipolar world. The emergence of newly independent states in Central Asia has changed the balance of power in this region. Due to its geographical proximity to Russia, China, West Asia and South Asia, this region emerged as a distinct geopolitical entity. Central Asian Republics at the dawn of independence were confronted with the numerous problems of state and nation building in a difficult milieu wherein various power centres competed for political power in a declining economy due to sudden severance of strong economic ties with Russia and consequent stoppages of Union subsidies. Rural unemployment and environmental degradation further contributed to aggravation of inter- ethnic relations. [1] Central Asian leaders have proved wrong the Western apprehensions of balkanisation of the region. The Central Asian Republics have preserved intact their national independence and sovereignty and carved out a dignified place for themselves in the comity of nations. They have taken several positive diplomatic and political initiatives at the U.N. and other international fora. Their religious beliefs have not come in the way of developing mutually beneficial relations with Israel. The Central Asian Republics have cordial relations with China and India. They are members of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) with the exception of Uzbekistan, which have contributed greatly to regional security environment. All of them except Turkmenistan are also members of Central Asian Cooperation Organisation (CACO). Their success in resolving the bloody internal conflict in Tajikistan by peacefully integrati ng the Islamic opposition into the mainstream politics of the republic is no mean feat. They have also evolved a strong joint response together with Russia and China to the threat of cross border terrorism and drugs and arms peddling.[2] Central Asia, a landlocked region in the heart of Asia, is unique because it was the counterpoint of British and Russian empires in 19th century and still has the same importance now, but among the other players. Two decades after independence, Central Asia is not a stable region and some political crisis is still unsolved here. This situation is created by some players which include trans-regional and regional players looking after their own interests. The interaction and countering of the players in the region have resulted in the present situation that created an undeveloped region, while potentially it is significant due its geopolitical, geo-strategic and economic point of view.[3] Geostrategic Significance of Central Asian Republics Central Asian Republics cover an area of 3,994,400 square kilometres. From the eastern shore of the Caspian sea , Central Asia extends eastwards to the Altai mountains along the Chinese border and from the southern border of the Russian Federation southwards upto the Tien Shan mountains and Afghanistan. (Map.1) Geographers have divided the region into four zones starting with the steppe zone of northern Kazakhstan and the Virgin lands (Tselana) ; semi deserts covering the rest of Kazakhstan; the desert zone upto the southern oases; and the southern mountains bordering all the republics which include the Kopet Dag, the Pamirs and the Tien Shan. [4] From Kushka, the southernmost point of Central Asia, there is a narrow road to Afghanistan. Transit and transportation of goods and passengers between region and Afghanistan can be exchanged via this road. Marine routes of Caspian Sea facilitate the relations between Central Asian Republics with Caucasus, Iran and Russia and by Volga-Don waterway canal they can connect with free waters and many countries. In the north, vast Kazakh plain and lowlands and low-height mountains connect Central Asia via railroad and road network with Russia. This territory located between two great Asian power (China) and Asian-European (Russia) and regional players such as Iran, Pakistan, and India influenced and affected it and play their roles. To enter this land-locked territory one should pass the territory of neighbouring countries. From southwards one should pass Iran or Afghanistan. In the current situation, to cross through mountainous Afghanistan is not viable.[5] One of the reasons for American presence in Afghanistan in east and Iraq in west of Iran is to surround Iran and Russia and to have access to Central Asia. Central Asia in north is bordered with Russia. Hence, to enter the heart of Russia is possible only via Central Asia and this is why Russia is against the presence of any foreign and trans-regional power in the region. Access to this territory from eastward is available by passing Chinas western part (XinJiang Uighur Region). China will never allow any trans-regional power to enter in its critical, geopolitically very important western region and from there to Central Asian territory at all. The only passage to enter Central Asia by foreign powers is Caucasus in the west of region which will be available via Caspian Sea. This is why Caucasus region has got a gateway situation and the Caspian Sea itself changed to the gate of Central Asia. Georgia in the west of Caucasus is located in the mouth of Caucasian natural corridor and is a gateway to enter Caucasus. During Cold War era, it was strongly defended by Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact powers. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia attempted hard to preserve it, but after one decade, the western powers by execution of Rose Revolution headed by Mikhail Saakashvili in2003 changed this position and allowed west to enter Caucasus. The formation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the territory of Central Asia and neighbouring countries is the outcome of this geo-strategic challenge between East and West. This seems to be counterweight against Americas hegemonic movements.[6] There are two movements in Central Asia and beyond. One is led by the West in west-east direction from Black Sea towards Central Asia through Caucasus, Caspian Sea and the other from North to South led by Russia in the vertical direction which cuts the west-east axis. The counter point of these two is Caspian Sea. This is why the Caspian Sea has vital importance for both sides.[7] Russia within security and economic regional organizations has attempted to remove the American influence in the region and already has its effective means that America doesnt have. There are some initiatives in the region which plays basic roles on security and geo-strategic environment of Central Asia. In fact, the future of Central Asia depends on the outcome of the New Great Game between America and Russia. Economic, geopolitics and geo-strategy of the Central Asia are very complicated.[8] CHAPTER III INDIAS ENERGY SOURCES With 16 percent of the worlds population and an emerging economy, India has become a significant consumer of energy resources. The majority of India energy needs are coal dependent . The shortage in supply of energy is met by energy imports from other countries. India is the worlds eleventh-largest energy producer, with 2.4 percent of energy production, and the worlds sixth-largest consumer, with 3.5 percent of global energy consumption. Domestic coal reserves account for 70 percent of Indias energy needs. The remaining 30 percent is met by oil, with more than 65 percent of that oil being imported. Demand for energy is expected to double by 2025; by then, 90 percent of Indias petroleum will be imported.[9] Energy Sources Coal. Coal accounts for more than half of Indias total energy consumption followed by oil, which comprises 31% of total energy consumption. Natural gas and hydroelectric power accounts for 8 and 6 % of consumption respectively.[10] (Refer Figure.1) Nuclear power comprises a very small percentage of total energy consumption at present. Domestic supplies satisfy most of Indias coal demand. According to the 2008 BP Statistical Energy Survey, India had 2007 coal consumption of 208 million tonnes oil equivalent. Unfortunately most of Indias coal is characterised by high ash content, but the quality has other useful qualities such as low sulphur content (generally 0.5%), low iron content in ash, low refractory nature of ash, low chlorine content and low trace element concentration.[11] With 7 percent of the worlds coal India has the fourth largest coal reserves. The Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF) estimates that at the current level of consumption and production, Indias coal r eserves will last for more than 200 years.[12] Oil. According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), India had 5.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2009, the second largest amount in the Asia- Pacific region after China. India produced roughly 880 thousand billion barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008.In 2007 India consumed approximately 2.8million bbl/d making it the fifth largest consumer of oil in the world.[13] (Refer Figure .2) Indias largest crude oil import partner is Saudi Arabia, followed by Iran. Nearly three-fourths of Indias crude oil imports come from Middle East.[14] (Figure 3). Natural Gas. According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), India had 38 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural Gas reserves as of Jan 2009. The EIA estimates that India produced 1.1 Tcf of natural gas in 2007, up only slightly from 2006 production levels. Although Indias natural gas production has consistently increased, demand has outstripped supply making the country a net importer of natural gas since 2004.[15] (Refer Figure .4) India imports natural gas via Liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG has not figured prominently in the energy mix, but is slowly increasing. Experts estimate that by 2012 Indias LNG imports will be on par with Japans current LNG imports of 60 million tonnes per annum. Although the Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) has already begun work on a National Gas Grid, there is considerable technological progress that has to be made in terms of extraction, transportation and delivery of LNG. It is estimated that once the grid is fully functional, LNG could offset a sign ificant portion of Indias energy demand.[16] Fuel-wise energy production iis given in Figure.5. New Exploration Licensing Policy and New Discoveries. Exploration blocks were put on offer under the New Exploration-Licensing-Policy(NELP) in1999 in order to try and attract private investment. India has offered 110 oil and gas blocks and 16 coal-bed-methane blocks for exploration in an attempt to raise domestic energy production and reduce import dependence.[17] Under NELP, 71 oil and gas discoveries have been made in 21 exploration blocks.[18] Hydrocarbon accretion has been more than 600 million tonnes of oil equivalent.[19] Cairn Energy has made 25 discoveries in Rajasthan and currently has six fields under development. Initial attention is being concentrated on Mangala, Bhagyam and Aishwariya (MBA). Production from Mangala is scheduled to begin in third quarter 2009. Output from the MBA fields is estimated to peak at 175,000 barrels per day, which would represent at least 20% of Indias total oil production[20]. Nuclear Power. India has a largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 20,000 megawatt electricity (MWe) nuclear capacity on line by 2020 and 63,000 MWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050. Due to Indias Nuclear isolation post 1974,for 34years India was largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which has hampered its development of civil nuclear energy until the signing of Indo US Nuclear Deal in 2008. Due to these trade bans and lack of indigenous uranium, India has uniquely been developing a nuclear cycle to exploit its reserves of thorium. [21]. Nuclear PowerGeneration Capacity. Indias present 2,720 MWe nuclear power plants include 14 reactors at 6 sites(Tarapur,Rawatbhatta, Kalapakkam,Narora,Kakrapar and Kaiga); ongoing 3,960 MWe nuclear power plants include 8 reactors at 4 sites (Tarapur,Kaiga, Rawatbhata and Kudankulam); and future nuclear plant include one Adwanced Heavy Water Reactor (AWHR) having a rating of 300MWe and a mix of 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactors,680 MWe Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors and 1000 MWe LWRs so as to reach a total of 20,000 MWe by 2020.[22] Hydro Electricity. India has a large hydro-potential estimated at 84000 megawatt (MW) at 60% load factor. Less than one fourth of that has been tapped. Large hydro projects are also being stiffly opposed by environmentalist all over the country.[23] Indias Energy Policy. The Indias energy policy states that the energy needs to be utilized not just from the conventional energy resources but also from other non-conventional sources like wind, water, geothermal, biomass etc. The India energy policy act emphasizes the need to develop newer energy sources that are more efficient and non-perishable. Since the energy sources levels are dropping with each passing day the energy of light (energy of a photon), energy of motion from the flowing water and geothermal energy and energy of an electron in chemical energy and other forms is the new energy units tapping solutions.[24] CHAPTER IV ENERGY POTENTIAL OF CAR The CAR is abundantly endowed with energy resources (Refer Table.1) The hydrocarbon reserves are unevenly distributed among the five CARs (Refer Fig.6) and includes a number of petroleum basins that are different in their geological development, reservoir and hydrocarbon types and quantity of resources. Various sources have reported that the postulated oil resources of the region are comparable with those of Saudi Arabia and that the potential gas resources are equal to Irans. Central Asia has been described as one of the worlds most strategic zones , between Russia , China and a troubled Middle East- a region coveted both by its larger neighbours and major world powers .[25] Energy Potential Kazakhstan. It is the second largest producer of petroleum in CIS after Russia. The Kashagan deposit on Caspian seabed was discovered recently and is estimated to contain 13 billion barrels of oil. US and China have already signed deals to exploit the same. The most significant deposits of gas are at Karachaganak (black hole) in northwest Kazakhstan. It is estimated that production of gas will touch 36.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2010. [27] Kazakhstans Gas Potential Kazakhstans Proven Reserves. BP estimates of 2008 place Kazakhstans proven reserves at 1.90 trillion cubic metres (tcm) (1.1% of global share). There are two other gas producing nations in the former Soviet Union that surpass Kazakhstan in terms of proven gas reserves: Russia with its 44.65 tcm (25.5% of global share) and Turkmenistan with 2.67tcm (1.5% of global share).[28] While published figures vary widely, rising as high as 3 380 bcm in the 2007 reserves report from the BGR, it may be of some significance that Oil Gas Journals latest tabulation of world gas reserves (December 2008) shows a decrease in Kazakhstan from 2 832 bcm at 1 January 2008 to 2 407 bcm at 1 January 2009.[29] Production Growth. Over the past decade, Kazakhstans gas sector has achieved considerable production growth, from 4.34 bcm in 1994 to 29.63 bcm in 2007 (see Figure 7). Production in January-July 2008was 19.74 bcm, up 13% year-on-year, and full-year production could potentially exceed the energy ministrys estimate of 33.7 bcm . (Refer Figure 7)[30] Kazakhstans Oil Potential Proven Hydrocarbon Reserves .Kazakhstans combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated between 9 and 40 billion barrels.[31] Oil Production and Consumption. Kazakhstan produced approximately 1.45 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil in 2007 and consumed 250,000 bbl/d, resulting in petroleum net exports of around 1.2 million bbl/d. (Refer Figure.8) Major Oil fields. Energy Information Authority expects oil production in Kazakhstan to average 1.54 and 1.71 million bbl/d in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Major producers include Karachaganak (250,000 bbl/d), Tengiz (280,000 bbl/d), CNPC-Aktobemunaigas (120,000 bbl/d), Uzenmunaigas (135,000 bbl/d), Mangistaumunaigas (115,000 bbl/d), and Kumkol (70,000 bbl/d). These producers account for 1million bbl/d (or around 70 percent) of liquids production in the country. Other production is centered in smaller fields.[32] Nuclear Fuel Potential Uranium. Kazakhstan has been an important source of uranium for more than fifty years. Over 2001-2008 production rose from 2000 to 8521 tonnes U per year, and further mine development is under way with a view to increase annual production upto18,000 tU/yr by 2010 and 30,000 tU by 2018. Production in 2009 is expected to be about 14,000 tU. Kazatompromis the national atomic company set up in 1997 and owned by the government. It controls all uranium exploration and mining as well as other nuclear-related activities, including imports and exports of nuclear materials. It announced in 2008 that it aims to supply 30% of the world uranium by 2015, and through joint ventures: 12% of uranium conversion market, 6% of enrichment, and 30% of the fuel fabrication market by then.[33] Energy Potential of Uzbekistan Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is unique among the CARs as being the only republic that shares a border with the other four Kazakhstan to the north and west, Tajikstan and Kyrigzstan to the east and Turkmenistan to the south. . Uzbekistan currently produces 60 bcm of natural gas annually, an amount nearly equal to Turkmenistans production. Uzbekistans reserves are primarily concentrated in Qashqadaryo province and near Bukhara in the countrys south-central region. During the 1970s Uzbekistans largest natural gas deposit at Boyangora-Gadzhak was discovered in Surkhandaryia province north of the Afghan border.[34] Uzbekistan also has small coal reserves, located mainly near Angren, east of Tashkent. In 1990 the total coal yield was 6 million tons. Oil production has likewise been small; Uzbekistan has relied on Russia and Kazakstan for most of its supply.[35]According to Eshref F Trushin of the Institute of Macro Economics and Social Research (Uzbekistan), the Republic is fifth in the world in uranium production. It also produced 60 tonnes of Gold in 1996. However Capisani reports the 1996 production at between 80 to 110 tonnes. Gold deposits are found in the Fergana Valley at Altynkan and Kochbulak, in Uchkuduk(Zeravshan) and at Murantau. In February 1992, a protocol was signed with the Canadian firm , Newmont Gold for the development of Murantau deposit. Copper is extracted in the Almalyk region, as also iron minerals, zinc, lead , tungsten, molybdenum and uranium.[36] Energy Potential of Turkmenistan Turkmenistans Oil Potential. Turkmenistan produces around 200,000 barrels per day of crude and is the biggest gas producer in the former Soviet Union after Russia with exports of around 50 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mainly to Russia and Ukraine. The country says its gas reserves are currently heavily underestimated and it can easily double and even triple production to supply gas to Europe and Asia.[37] According to U.S Energy Information Administration total oil production in the country in 2008 was 189.40 barrels per day. The crude oil production reached 170.26 barrels per day whereas the consumption of petroleum products and direct consumption of crude oil was 103 thousand barrels per day. The refining capacity is 237 million barrels per day and the Turkmenistan ranks world no 57 in its refining capacity. The proven reserves are 600 million barrels (Refer Table 2). Turkmenistans Gas Reserves. The production of natural gas in 2007 was 2,432 billion Cubic Feet as compared to domestic consumption of 688 Billion Cubic Feet. The country exported 1,745 Billion Cubic Feet Natural Gas in 2007. The Net proven reserves amount to huge 100,000 Billion Cubic Feet.[38] Energy Potential of Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan currently does not have enough energy to provide reliable light and heat to its residents and factories. Although the country relies heavily on domestic sources of hydropower for much of its electricity, recent droughts and mismanagement drastically cut these supplies. Kyrgyzstan is increasingly seeking to identify and bring on line new sources of energy. The country currently imports most of the natural gas, petroleum products and coal that it consumes. At the same time, beyond hydro power, Kyrgyzstan has essentially no alternative energy production. Kyrgyzstan faces a variety of challenges in developing its energy sector. In the foreign policy sphere, Kyrgyzstan confronts problems that are a consequence of the extremely complex and volatile political landscape in Central Asia. Domestically, issues of economic crisis, organizational dysfunction, poorly written laws, and corruption hinder reform.[39] Energy Potential of Tajikistan Tajikistans Proven Oil Reserves. Tajikistan has proven reserves of 12 million barrels of oil (Refer Table.2), most of which are located in the northern part of the country in the Leninobod Soghd Region. The national oil company is Tajikneftegaz, which handles oil exploration, drilling, and production. In 2001, Tajik oil production was only 350 barrels per day (b/d). There has been a long period of production decline since Tajikistan produced 1,311 b/d in 1992. This decrease has been attributed to the 1992-1997 civil war, economic troubles, and lack of investment in the oil infrastructure. Tajikistan consumes 29,000 b/d of oil products, almost all of which are imported. The main source is Uzbekistan, which provides 70% of Tajikistans oil product imports. [40] Tajikistan Gas Reserves. Tajikistan has 200 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas reserves, comprised of several fields. In 2000, Tajikistan began operations in the Khoja Sartez field in the southern Khatlon Region, and has also increased its activity in the Qizil Tumshuq deposit in the Kolkhozobod District of the southern Khatlon Region. Tajikistan has also tried to increase its own gas production, in 2000, by exploratory drilling in the Khatlon region. Apparently, some of the drilling has been successful enough to interest China in future drilling activities. The total natural gas production for Tajikistan in 2000 was 1.4 Bcf. With its small domestic production, Tajikistan must rely on imports for 95% of the natural gas it consumes. [41] Viability of CARs to Serve as an Alternative to West Asia If the CARs are to provide a viable source of supply diversification for energy importers, they must have an environment that sets them apart from the Gulf countries that currently supply bulk of the oil. The oil importers sense of vulnerability stems from the fear of emergence of militant Islam in West Asia.[42] Factors Affecting Viability. In this context, the CARs ability to provide a viable alternate to West Asia is subject to a variety of factors as under:-[43] Proven Reserves. The known and proven reserves of West Asian oil account for 66%of global deposits whereas the proven and possible reserves of the entire Former Soviet Union (FSU) region are no more than 5.5%, of which Central Asia s share is even less. When it comes of natural gas the FSU region of which Russia constitutes the chunk , accounts for 39%of global reserves but Central Asian share is only around 6%. Only about 3%of the global energy trade is accounted for by the Caspian region and the share of CARs is even less. Thus the CARs can only supplement, not supplant West Asian suppliers, whether it is oil or gas. Drilling Costs. Drilling oil in CARs costs three to six times as much as it does in West Asia. While it can be as low as $1per barrel in Iraq or Saudi Arabia, it would cost up to $5 to produce a barrel of oil from the Northern Caspian. This implies that it is economically attractive to produce oil in CARs only when global oil prices reign above a certain threshold level and being a marginal producer the Caspian region will have to follow the prices set by OPEC and that they will not be in a position to influence prices to any significant extent. While gas production in the region is competitive with the rest of the world, the need to ferry it by long pipelines through difficult terrain offsets the cost advantages. Connectivity. Unlike West Asia, which enjoys excellent connectivity with energy consumers all over the globe through well established sea routes and tanker infrastructure, the CARS are constrained by geography that limits not only existing ,but also future transit routes to global market. Quality. The quality of crude from some wells in Caspian region demands extensive processing before it can be consumed. Not all refineries have the processing capacity which constrains the range of consumers who can buy CARs oil even when it is available. Insurgency. Incipient insurgency in some parts of CARs renders them less attractive as an alternate source of supply. Uneven development of the different countries of the region and the ethnic diversities , instability in Chechnya Potential of CARs to Supplement Indias Energy Imports Potential of CARs to Supplement Indias Energy Imports CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Indian economy has grown at a rapid pace in the last five years and so has the demand for energy of a billion people. India imports 70% of its domestic crude oil requirements. The bulk of Indias oil imports come from West Asia. The supply routes pass through the choke point of Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in these will severely impact our national interest. Hence there is a need to diversify our supply sources in order to reduce our dependence on Gulf oil. Central Asian Region being rich in energy resources and located in our extended neighbourhood offer a tempting prospect. The CARs situated on the eastern flank of the Caspian Sea have significant oil and natural gas reserves to be considered as a possible source of diversification for countries heavily dependent on energy imports from West Asia and elsewhere . While estimates of reserves vary widely across different sources, there is a consensus that the region has much potential. Energy is the engine of economic growth. Availability of energy is the key to sustainable development, and has a direct impact in most aspects of our daily life. Inadequacy of energy supply affects very adversely vital and essential requirements of any society. Hence, there is an urgent need to enhance substantially the energy availability at a rapid pace so that aspirations of those who have remained at the fringes of development are able to benefit from access to this important input. The Central Asian Republics comprising of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan encompass the vast geo- political space north of India. When part of the USSR, the region had stability and was thus of little interest to the international world order. Relations with India were determined with the framework of Indo-USSR relations as existed between New Delhi and Moscow. The post USSR environment has changed all this, requiring New Delhi to re- establish relations with the five newly independent nation- states on the basis of new realities. It is remarkable that while energy resources are getting increasingly scarce in the rest of the world, new oil fields are being discovered with great regularity in Central Asia. Some experts maintain that Central Asian resources may be difficult to reach because of it is the largest land mass in the world, which is land locked. This is both a challenge and an opportunity, because in todays technology driven world, it is not always necessary to transport material. This is the logic of investment abroad and organising production facilities there. India has long-standing historical ties with Central Asia that encompasses the political, cultural, economic and religious dimensions. The impact of regional developments in Central Asia on Indias history has been longstanding and substantial. According to Mr. Yashwant Sinha, Former Minister of External Affairs, Government of India, Indias increasing engagement with Central Asia is aimed at promoting peace and mutual prosperity. Central Asia can once again be a bridge between the East and West, if its neighbourhood is peaceful and stable, and if the only interference from outside is one of beneficial economic inputs. The bridge can contribute to peace and prosperity and energy security in the wider world too. METHODOLOGY Statement of the Problem To examine the potential of CARs to supplement Indias Energy Imports the possible routes through which Energy could flow to the South Asian Markets. Hypothesis Central Asian Republics as a region has been endowed with abundant energy resources. Their significance is due to their Geo-strategic loc as well as its rich energy deposits. The Geo- political developments in the region would perforce have an impact on India. Peace stability in Central Asia is an imperative to harness the abundant energy resources. The Central Asian region represents a tempting prospect for diversification of supply sources to India, being located in its extended neighbourhood. Justification of the Study Indian economy has changed gears after the historic decision of liberalisation in 1991. Globalisation coupled with liberalisation ha s brought about a sea change in our lives .India has made rapid strides in industrialisation , IT industry , Telecom , Education, service industry and infrastructure development. Our energy consumption has far outpaced our domestic production. Most of our crude imports come from Gulf countries. The supply routes are prone to disruption and can severely impact our national interest. Although we have started acquiring energy stakes in Africa we need to diversify our energy sources. While India is surrounded by energy rich neighbourhood-Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar access to supply energy from these remain elusive. Political compulsions and indifferent relations are an impediment to energy imports through Bangladesh and Pakistan. In Myanmar ONGC has acquired exploration acreages. However any gas finds could make transportation a challenge unless Bangladesh allows transit through its territory. In view of the above, energy imports from CARs in Indias extended neighbourhood needs to be critically examined in order to optimise the full potential of Indo-CAR energy cooperation. Scope This study seeks to focus on the potential of INDO- CAR energy cooperation and identify the possible routes of energy flow from CAR to India. Methods of Data Collection The means of data collection has been number of books and papers by various prominent Indian and foreign authors, newspapers and many other wide ranging array of sources. Various internet sites have also been browsed for data collection .Books and websites consulted are listed in the bibliography. Organisation of the Dissertation It is proposed to study the subject in the following manner:- Chapter I: Introduction. Chapter II: Emergence of CAR as Nation States and their Geo -Strategic significance. Chapter III: Indias Energy Sources. Chapter IV: Energy Potential of CAR. Chapter V: Interest of Global and Regional Players in Central Asia. Chapter VI: Challenges and Threats to Security of Central Asian Region. Chapter VII: India Central Asia Energy Cooperation. Chapter VIII: Indias Strategy. Chapter IX: Conclusion. CHAPTER II EMERGENCE OF CAR AS NATION STATES AND THEIR GEOSTRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE Emergence of CAR as Nation States Disintegration of former USSR was a momentous occasion unprecedented in scale and unanticipated by any power of the world, which ended the cold war and saw the emergence of a unipolar world. The emergence of newly independent states in Central Asia has changed the balance of power in this region. Due to its geographical proximity to Russia, China, West Asia and South Asia, this region emerged as a distinct geopolitical entity. Central Asian Republics at the dawn of independence were confronted with the numerous problems of state and nation building in a difficult milieu wherein various power centres competed for political power in a declining economy due to sudden severance of strong economic ties with Russia and consequent stoppages of Union subsidies. Rural unemployment and environmental degradation further contributed to aggravation of inter- ethnic relations. [1] Central Asian leaders have proved wrong the Western apprehensions of balkanisation of the region. The Central Asian Republics have preserved intact their national independence and sovereignty and carved out a dignified place for themselves in the comity of nations. They have taken several positive diplomatic and political initiatives at the U.N. and other international fora. Their religious beliefs have not come in the way of developing mutually beneficial relations with Israel. The Central Asian Republics have cordial relations with China and India. They are members of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) with the exception of Uzbekistan, which have contributed greatly to regional security environment. All of them except Turkmenistan are also members of Central Asian Cooperation Organisation (CACO). Their success in resolving the bloody internal conflict in Tajikistan by peacefully integrati ng the Islamic opposition into the mainstream politics of the republic is no mean feat. They have also evolved a strong joint response together with Russia and China to the threat of cross border terrorism and drugs and arms peddling.[2] Central Asia, a landlocked region in the heart of Asia, is unique because it was the counterpoint of British and Russian empires in 19th century and still has the same importance now, but among the other players. Two decades after independence, Central Asia is not a stable region and some political crisis is still unsolved here. This situation is created by some players which include trans-regional and regional players looking after their own interests. The interaction and countering of the players in the region have resulted in the present situation that created an undeveloped region, while potentially it is significant due its geopolitical, geo-strategic and economic point of view.[3] Geostrategic Significance of Central Asian Republics Central Asian Republics cover an area of 3,994,400 square kilometres. From the eastern shore of the Caspian sea , Central Asia extends eastwards to the Altai mountains along the Chinese border and from the southern border of the Russian Federation southwards upto the Tien Shan mountains and Afghanistan. (Map.1) Geographers have divided the region into four zones starting with the steppe zone of northern Kazakhstan and the Virgin lands (Tselana) ; semi deserts covering the rest of Kazakhstan; the desert zone upto the southern oases; and the southern mountains bordering all the republics which include the Kopet Dag, the Pamirs and the Tien Shan. [4] From Kushka, the southernmost point of Central Asia, there is a narrow road to Afghanistan. Transit and transportation of goods and passengers between region and Afghanistan can be exchanged via this road. Marine routes of Caspian Sea facilitate the relations between Central Asian Republics with Caucasus, Iran and Russia and by Volga-Don waterway canal they can connect with free waters and many countries. In the north, vast Kazakh plain and lowlands and low-height mountains connect Central Asia via railroad and road network with Russia. This territory located between two great Asian power (China) and Asian-European (Russia) and regional players such as Iran, Pakistan, and India influenced and affected it and play their roles. To enter this land-locked territory one should pass the territory of neighbouring countries. From southwards one should pass Iran or Afghanistan. In the current situation, to cross through mountainous Afghanistan is not viable.[5] One of the reasons for American presence in Afghanistan in east and Iraq in west of Iran is to surround Iran and Russia and to have access to Central Asia. Central Asia in north is bordered with Russia. Hence, to enter the heart of Russia is possible only via Central Asia and this is why Russia is against the presence of any foreign and trans-regional power in the region. Access to this territory from eastward is available by passing Chinas western part (XinJiang Uighur Region). China will never allow any trans-regional power to enter in its critical, geopolitically very important western region and from there to Central Asian territory at all. The only passage to enter Central Asia by foreign powers is Caucasus in the west of region which will be available via Caspian Sea. This is why Caucasus region has got a gateway situation and the Caspian Sea itself changed to the gate of Central Asia. Georgia in the west of Caucasus is located in the mouth of Caucasian natural corridor and is a gateway to enter Caucasus. During Cold War era, it was strongly defended by Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact powers. After the collapse of Soviet Union, Russia attempted hard to preserve it, but after one decade, the western powers by execution of Rose Revolution headed by Mikhail Saakashvili in2003 changed this position and allowed west to enter Caucasus. The formation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the territory of Central Asia and neighbouring countries is the outcome of this geo-strategic challenge between East and West. This seems to be counterweight against Americas hegemonic movements.[6] There are two movements in Central Asia and beyond. One is led by the West in west-east direction from Black Sea towards Central Asia through Caucasus, Caspian Sea and the other from North to South led by Russia in the vertical direction which cuts the west-east axis. The counter point of these two is Caspian Sea. This is why the Caspian Sea has vital importance for both sides.[7] Russia within security and economic regional organizations has attempted to remove the American influence in the region and already has its effective means that America doesnt have. There are some initiatives in the region which plays basic roles on security and geo-strategic environment of Central Asia. In fact, the future of Central Asia depends on the outcome of the New Great Game between America and Russia. Economic, geopolitics and geo-strategy of the Central Asia are very complicated.[8] CHAPTER III INDIAS ENERGY SOURCES With 16 percent of the worlds population and an emerging economy, India has become a significant consumer of energy resources. The majority of India energy needs are coal dependent . The shortage in supply of energy is met by energy imports from other countries. India is the worlds eleventh-largest energy producer, with 2.4 percent of energy production, and the worlds sixth-largest consumer, with 3.5 percent of global energy consumption. Domestic coal reserves account for 70 percent of Indias energy needs. The remaining 30 percent is met by oil, with more than 65 percent of that oil being imported. Demand for energy is expected to double by 2025; by then, 90 percent of Indias petroleum will be imported.[9] Energy Sources Coal. Coal accounts for more than half of Indias total energy consumption followed by oil, which comprises 31% of total energy consumption. Natural gas and hydroelectric power accounts for 8 and 6 % of consumption respectively.[10] (Refer Figure.1) Nuclear power comprises a very small percentage of total energy consumption at present. Domestic supplies satisfy most of Indias coal demand. According to the 2008 BP Statistical Energy Survey, India had 2007 coal consumption of 208 million tonnes oil equivalent. Unfortunately most of Indias coal is characterised by high ash content, but the quality has other useful qualities such as low sulphur content (generally 0.5%), low iron content in ash, low refractory nature of ash, low chlorine content and low trace element concentration.[11] With 7 percent of the worlds coal India has the fourth largest coal reserves. The Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF) estimates that at the current level of consumption and production, Indias coal r eserves will last for more than 200 years.[12] Oil. According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), India had 5.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2009, the second largest amount in the Asia- Pacific region after China. India produced roughly 880 thousand billion barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008.In 2007 India consumed approximately 2.8million bbl/d making it the fifth largest consumer of oil in the world.[13] (Refer Figure .2) Indias largest crude oil import partner is Saudi Arabia, followed by Iran. Nearly three-fourths of Indias crude oil imports come from Middle East.[14] (Figure 3). Natural Gas. According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), India had 38 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural Gas reserves as of Jan 2009. The EIA estimates that India produced 1.1 Tcf of natural gas in 2007, up only slightly from 2006 production levels. Although Indias natural gas production has consistently increased, demand has outstripped supply making the country a net importer of natural gas since 2004.[15] (Refer Figure .4) India imports natural gas via Liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG has not figured prominently in the energy mix, but is slowly increasing. Experts estimate that by 2012 Indias LNG imports will be on par with Japans current LNG imports of 60 million tonnes per annum. Although the Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) has already begun work on a National Gas Grid, there is considerable technological progress that has to be made in terms of extraction, transportation and delivery of LNG. It is estimated that once the grid is fully functional, LNG could offset a sign ificant portion of Indias energy demand.[16] Fuel-wise energy production iis given in Figure.5. New Exploration Licensing Policy and New Discoveries. Exploration blocks were put on offer under the New Exploration-Licensing-Policy(NELP) in1999 in order to try and attract private investment. India has offered 110 oil and gas blocks and 16 coal-bed-methane blocks for exploration in an attempt to raise domestic energy production and reduce import dependence.[17] Under NELP, 71 oil and gas discoveries have been made in 21 exploration blocks.[18] Hydrocarbon accretion has been more than 600 million tonnes of oil equivalent.[19] Cairn Energy has made 25 discoveries in Rajasthan and currently has six fields under development. Initial attention is being concentrated on Mangala, Bhagyam and Aishwariya (MBA). Production from Mangala is scheduled to begin in third quarter 2009. Output from the MBA fields is estimated to peak at 175,000 barrels per day, which would represent at least 20% of Indias total oil production[20]. Nuclear Power. India has a largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 20,000 megawatt electricity (MWe) nuclear capacity on line by 2020 and 63,000 MWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050. Due to Indias Nuclear isolation post 1974,for 34years India was largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which has hampered its development of civil nuclear energy until the signing of Indo US Nuclear Deal in 2008. Due to these trade bans and lack of indigenous uranium, India has uniquely been developing a nuclear cycle to exploit its reserves of thorium. [21]. Nuclear PowerGeneration Capacity. Indias present 2,720 MWe nuclear power plants include 14 reactors at 6 sites(Tarapur,Rawatbhatta, Kalapakkam,Narora,Kakrapar and Kaiga); ongoing 3,960 MWe nuclear power plants include 8 reactors at 4 sites (Tarapur,Kaiga, Rawatbhata and Kudankulam); and future nuclear plant include one Adwanced Heavy Water Reactor (AWHR) having a rating of 300MWe and a mix of 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactors,680 MWe Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors and 1000 MWe LWRs so as to reach a total of 20,000 MWe by 2020.[22] Hydro Electricity. India has a large hydro-potential estimated at 84000 megawatt (MW) at 60% load factor. Less than one fourth of that has been tapped. Large hydro projects are also being stiffly opposed by environmentalist all over the country.[23] Indias Energy Policy. The Indias energy policy states that the energy needs to be utilized not just from the conventional energy resources but also from other non-conventional sources like wind, water, geothermal, biomass etc. The India energy policy act emphasizes the need to develop newer energy sources that are more efficient and non-perishable. Since the energy sources levels are dropping with each passing day the energy of light (energy of a photon), energy of motion from the flowing water and geothermal energy and energy of an electron in chemical energy and other forms is the new energy units tapping solutions.[24] CHAPTER IV ENERGY POTENTIAL OF CAR The CAR is abundantly endowed with energy resources (Refer Table.1) The hydrocarbon reserves are unevenly distributed among the five CARs (Refer Fig.6) and includes a number of petroleum basins that are different in their geological development, reservoir and hydrocarbon types and quantity of resources. Various sources have reported that the postulated oil resources of the region are comparable with those of Saudi Arabia and that the potential gas resources are equal to Irans. Central Asia has been described as one of the worlds most strategic zones , between Russia , China and a troubled Middle East- a region coveted both by its larger neighbours and major world powers .[25] Energy Potential Kazakhstan. It is the second largest producer of petroleum in CIS after Russia. The Kashagan deposit on Caspian seabed was discovered recently and is estimated to contain 13 billion barrels of oil. US and China have already signed deals to exploit the same. The most significant deposits of gas are at Karachaganak (black hole) in northwest Kazakhstan. It is estimated that production of gas will touch 36.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2010. [27] Kazakhstans Gas Potential Kazakhstans Proven Reserves. BP estimates of 2008 place Kazakhstans proven reserves at 1.90 trillion cubic metres (tcm) (1.1% of global share). There are two other gas producing nations in the former Soviet Union that surpass Kazakhstan in terms of proven gas reserves: Russia with its 44.65 tcm (25.5% of global share) and Turkmenistan with 2.67tcm (1.5% of global share).[28] While published figures vary widely, rising as high as 3 380 bcm in the 2007 reserves report from the BGR, it may be of some significance that Oil Gas Journals latest tabulation of world gas reserves (December 2008) shows a decrease in Kazakhstan from 2 832 bcm at 1 January 2008 to 2 407 bcm at 1 January 2009.[29] Production Growth. Over the past decade, Kazakhstans gas sector has achieved considerable production growth, from 4.34 bcm in 1994 to 29.63 bcm in 2007 (see Figure 7). Production in January-July 2008was 19.74 bcm, up 13% year-on-year, and full-year production could potentially exceed the energy ministrys estimate of 33.7 bcm . (Refer Figure 7)[30] Kazakhstans Oil Potential Proven Hydrocarbon Reserves .Kazakhstans combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated between 9 and 40 billion barrels.[31] Oil Production and Consumption. Kazakhstan produced approximately 1.45 million barrels per day (bbl/d) of oil in 2007 and consumed 250,000 bbl/d, resulting in petroleum net exports of around 1.2 million bbl/d. (Refer Figure.8) Major Oil fields. Energy Information Authority expects oil production in Kazakhstan to average 1.54 and 1.71 million bbl/d in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Major producers include Karachaganak (250,000 bbl/d), Tengiz (280,000 bbl/d), CNPC-Aktobemunaigas (120,000 bbl/d), Uzenmunaigas (135,000 bbl/d), Mangistaumunaigas (115,000 bbl/d), and Kumkol (70,000 bbl/d). These producers account for 1million bbl/d (or around 70 percent) of liquids production in the country. Other production is centered in smaller fields.[32] Nuclear Fuel Potential Uranium. Kazakhstan has been an important source of uranium for more than fifty years. Over 2001-2008 production rose from 2000 to 8521 tonnes U per year, and further mine development is under way with a view to increase annual production upto18,000 tU/yr by 2010 and 30,000 tU by 2018. Production in 2009 is expected to be about 14,000 tU. Kazatompromis the national atomic company set up in 1997 and owned by the government. It controls all uranium exploration and mining as well as other nuclear-related activities, including imports and exports of nuclear materials. It announced in 2008 that it aims to supply 30% of the world uranium by 2015, and through joint ventures: 12% of uranium conversion market, 6% of enrichment, and 30% of the fuel fabrication market by then.[33] Energy Potential of Uzbekistan Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is unique among the CARs as being the only republic that shares a border with the other four Kazakhstan to the north and west, Tajikstan and Kyrigzstan to the east and Turkmenistan to the south. . Uzbekistan currently produces 60 bcm of natural gas annually, an amount nearly equal to Turkmenistans production. Uzbekistans reserves are primarily concentrated in Qashqadaryo province and near Bukhara in the countrys south-central region. During the 1970s Uzbekistans largest natural gas deposit at Boyangora-Gadzhak was discovered in Surkhandaryia province north of the Afghan border.[34] Uzbekistan also has small coal reserves, located mainly near Angren, east of Tashkent. In 1990 the total coal yield was 6 million tons. Oil production has likewise been small; Uzbekistan has relied on Russia and Kazakstan for most of its supply.[35]According to Eshref F Trushin of the Institute of Macro Economics and Social Research (Uzbekistan), the Republic is fifth in the world in uranium production. It also produced 60 tonnes of Gold in 1996. However Capisani reports the 1996 production at between 80 to 110 tonnes. Gold deposits are found in the Fergana Valley at Altynkan and Kochbulak, in Uchkuduk(Zeravshan) and at Murantau. In February 1992, a protocol was signed with the Canadian firm , Newmont Gold for the development of Murantau deposit. Copper is extracted in the Almalyk region, as also iron minerals, zinc, lead , tungsten, molybdenum and uranium.[36] Energy Potential of Turkmenistan Turkmenistans Oil Potential. Turkmenistan produces around 200,000 barrels per day of crude and is the biggest gas producer in the former Soviet Union after Russia with exports of around 50 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mainly to Russia and Ukraine. The country says its gas reserves are currently heavily underestimated and it can easily double and even triple production to supply gas to Europe and Asia.[37] According to U.S Energy Information Administration total oil production in the country in 2008 was 189.40 barrels per day. The crude oil production reached 170.26 barrels per day whereas the consumption of petroleum products and direct consumption of crude oil was 103 thousand barrels per day. The refining capacity is 237 million barrels per day and the Turkmenistan ranks world no 57 in its refining capacity. The proven reserves are 600 million barrels (Refer Table 2). Turkmenistans Gas Reserves. The production of natural gas in 2007 was 2,432 billion Cubic Feet as compared to domestic consumption of 688 Billion Cubic Feet. The country exported 1,745 Billion Cubic Feet Natural Gas in 2007. The Net proven reserves amount to huge 100,000 Billion Cubic Feet.[38] Energy Potential of Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan currently does not have enough energy to provide reliable light and heat to its residents and factories. Although the country relies heavily on domestic sources of hydropower for much of its electricity, recent droughts and mismanagement drastically cut these supplies. Kyrgyzstan is increasingly seeking to identify and bring on line new sources of energy. The country currently imports most of the natural gas, petroleum products and coal that it consumes. At the same time, beyond hydro power, Kyrgyzstan has essentially no alternative energy production. Kyrgyzstan faces a variety of challenges in developing its energy sector. In the foreign policy sphere, Kyrgyzstan confronts problems that are a consequence of the extremely complex and volatile political landscape in Central Asia. Domestically, issues of economic crisis, organizational dysfunction, poorly written laws, and corruption hinder reform.[39] Energy Potential of Tajikistan Tajikistans Proven Oil Reserves. Tajikistan has proven reserves of 12 million barrels of oil (Refer Table.2), most of which are located in the northern part of the country in the Leninobod Soghd Region. The national oil company is Tajikneftegaz, which handles oil exploration, drilling, and production. In 2001, Tajik oil production was only 350 barrels per day (b/d). There has been a long period of production decline since Tajikistan produced 1,311 b/d in 1992. This decrease has been attributed to the 1992-1997 civil war, economic troubles, and lack of investment in the oil infrastructure. Tajikistan consumes 29,000 b/d of oil products, almost all of which are imported. The main source is Uzbekistan, which provides 70% of Tajikistans oil product imports. [40] Tajikistan Gas Reserves. Tajikistan has 200 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas reserves, comprised of several fields. In 2000, Tajikistan began operations in the Khoja Sartez field in the southern Khatlon Region, and has also increased its activity in the Qizil Tumshuq deposit in the Kolkhozobod District of the southern Khatlon Region. Tajikistan has also tried to increase its own gas production, in 2000, by exploratory drilling in the Khatlon region. Apparently, some of the drilling has been successful enough to interest China in future drilling activities. The total natural gas production for Tajikistan in 2000 was 1.4 Bcf. With its small domestic production, Tajikistan must rely on imports for 95% of the natural gas it consumes. [41] Viability of CARs to Serve as an Alternative to West Asia If the CARs are to provide a viable source of supply diversification for energy importers, they must have an environment that sets them apart from the Gulf countries that currently supply bulk of the oil. The oil importers sense of vulnerability stems from the fear of emergence of militant Islam in West Asia.[42] Factors Affecting Viability. In this context, the CARs ability to provide a viable alternate to West Asia is subject to a variety of factors as under:-[43] Proven Reserves. The known and proven reserves of West Asian oil account for 66%of global deposits whereas the proven and possible reserves of the entire Former Soviet Union (FSU) region are no more than 5.5%, of which Central Asia s share is even less. When it comes of natural gas the FSU region of which Russia constitutes the chunk , accounts for 39%of global reserves but Central Asian share is only around 6%. Only about 3%of the global energy trade is accounted for by the Caspian region and the share of CARs is even less. Thus the CARs can only supplement, not supplant West Asian suppliers, whether it is oil or gas. Drilling Costs. Drilling oil in CARs costs three to six times as much as it does in West Asia. While it can be as low as $1per barrel in Iraq or Saudi Arabia, it would cost up to $5 to produce a barrel of oil from the Northern Caspian. This implies that it is economically attractive to produce oil in CARs only when global oil prices reign above a certain threshold level and being a marginal producer the Caspian region will have to follow the prices set by OPEC and that they will not be in a position to influence prices to any significant extent. While gas production in the region is competitive with the rest of the world, the need to ferry it by long pipelines through difficult terrain offsets the cost advantages. Connectivity. Unlike West Asia, which enjoys excellent connectivity with energy consumers all over the globe through well established sea routes and tanker infrastructure, the CARS are constrained by geography that limits not only existing ,but also future transit routes to global market. Quality. The quality of crude from some wells in Caspian region demands extensive processing before it can be consumed. Not all refineries have the processing capacity which constrains the range of consumers who can buy CARs oil even when it is available. Insurgency. Incipient insurgency in some parts of CARs renders them less attractive as an alternate source of supply. Uneven development of the different countries of the region and the ethnic diversities , instability in Chechnya
Sunday, August 4, 2019
Natue of Science :: essays research papers
Science Report (Nature of Science) Aim To find out the effect of the thickness of a biscuit on the ability of the biscuit to support a finite amount of weights Apparatus oà à à à à Weights oà à à à à Biscuits oà à à à à Thread Background Information ââ¬Å"Biscuits are designed to be strong so that they do not crumble easily.â⬠(http://www.nzmaths.co.nz/Number/CrossStrand/biscuits.htm) A biscuit consists of flour, oil and other ingredients, which are packed together into a brittle solid. Therefore, biscuits can stand up to a finite amount of weight before it breaks. Hypothesis The thicker a biscuit, the more weights it can support. Variables Independent oà à à à à Increment of Thickness oà à à à à Method of applying weights oà à à à à Type of Biscuit oà à à à à How the Biscuit/Biscuits are placed Method of Control (Independent Variables) oà à à à à Increment of Thickness ââ¬â Regular increment of 1 biscuit thickness oà à à à à Method of applying the weights ââ¬â Placing the weights gently onto the biscuits, increasing the weight by 100g each time, until the crackers break. oà à à à à Type of Biscuit ââ¬â Use identical Khong Guan Cheese Crackers oà à à à à How the Biscuit/Biscuits are placed ââ¬â The biscuits will be strung tightly together and hung on a hook. (Refer to diagram 1.1) Dependent oà à à à à The number of weights that can be hung on the biscuits Procedure 1)à à à à à Drill a hole in the middle of the biscuit with a needle. 2)à à à à à Hang the weight holder on the biscuit. 3)à à à à à Place 100g weights one by one, until the biscuit breaks (Refer to diagram 1.1) 4)à à à à à Repeat the experiment with 2,3,4 and 5 biscuits 5)à à à à à Repeat the experiment 3 times 6)à à à à à Calculate the average weight required to break the biscuits of different thickness 7)à à à à à Plot a graph to identify the main trend of this experiment. 8)à à à à à Formulate a conclusion from the results. Margin of Error As the weights obtained are 100g weights, they are not precise. Therefore, if a biscuit breaks when a 200g weight is hung on it, it does not mean that the biscuit breaks at 200g. It is just an approximate amount. To utilize a spring balance would have caused the results to be more accurate. Secondly, whenever a new weight is added to the weight holder, the position of the set-up shifts a little. Natue of Science :: essays research papers Science Report (Nature of Science) Aim To find out the effect of the thickness of a biscuit on the ability of the biscuit to support a finite amount of weights Apparatus oà à à à à Weights oà à à à à Biscuits oà à à à à Thread Background Information ââ¬Å"Biscuits are designed to be strong so that they do not crumble easily.â⬠(http://www.nzmaths.co.nz/Number/CrossStrand/biscuits.htm) A biscuit consists of flour, oil and other ingredients, which are packed together into a brittle solid. Therefore, biscuits can stand up to a finite amount of weight before it breaks. Hypothesis The thicker a biscuit, the more weights it can support. Variables Independent oà à à à à Increment of Thickness oà à à à à Method of applying weights oà à à à à Type of Biscuit oà à à à à How the Biscuit/Biscuits are placed Method of Control (Independent Variables) oà à à à à Increment of Thickness ââ¬â Regular increment of 1 biscuit thickness oà à à à à Method of applying the weights ââ¬â Placing the weights gently onto the biscuits, increasing the weight by 100g each time, until the crackers break. oà à à à à Type of Biscuit ââ¬â Use identical Khong Guan Cheese Crackers oà à à à à How the Biscuit/Biscuits are placed ââ¬â The biscuits will be strung tightly together and hung on a hook. (Refer to diagram 1.1) Dependent oà à à à à The number of weights that can be hung on the biscuits Procedure 1)à à à à à Drill a hole in the middle of the biscuit with a needle. 2)à à à à à Hang the weight holder on the biscuit. 3)à à à à à Place 100g weights one by one, until the biscuit breaks (Refer to diagram 1.1) 4)à à à à à Repeat the experiment with 2,3,4 and 5 biscuits 5)à à à à à Repeat the experiment 3 times 6)à à à à à Calculate the average weight required to break the biscuits of different thickness 7)à à à à à Plot a graph to identify the main trend of this experiment. 8)à à à à à Formulate a conclusion from the results. Margin of Error As the weights obtained are 100g weights, they are not precise. Therefore, if a biscuit breaks when a 200g weight is hung on it, it does not mean that the biscuit breaks at 200g. It is just an approximate amount. To utilize a spring balance would have caused the results to be more accurate. Secondly, whenever a new weight is added to the weight holder, the position of the set-up shifts a little.
Saturday, August 3, 2019
Essay on Discourse in A Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man
Authoritative Discourse in A Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man à In James Joyce's A Portrait of An Artist As A Young Man, the main character, Stephen Dedalus, struggles between his natural instincts, or what Bakhtin calls the "internally persuasive discourse" that "[is not] backed up by [an] authority at all", and his learned response, reinforced by the "authoritative discourse" of religion. To Stephen's "internally persuasive discourse", his natural sex drive is not 'wrong'. It is only after he succumbs to the "authoritative discourse" of religion that he learns that such a natural human drive is 'bad'. Thus, he learns that it is wrong to succumb to sex: he does not think that it is bad on his own. In this case, the "authoritative discourse" that considers sexual drive to be 'bad' becomes Stephen's "internally persuasive discourse". He learns that his natural urges are wrong and, as a result, he learns to deny them and pretend them to be nonexistent. This is how the "authoritative discourse" becomes Stephen's "internally persuasive discourse". à à à The evidence that Stephen relies on his senses is best shown by the description of how much he has to deny his senses in order to reach the "discourse" of religion. à Each of his senses was brought under a religious discipline. In order to mortify the sense of sight he made it his rule to walk in the street with downcast eyes, glancing neither to right nor left and never behind him. His eyes shunned every encounter with the eyes of women (162-3). à However, there is a natural impulse from which he cannot escape: and that is his sense of touch. He may try to deny it in all possible ways but he cannot wholly escape it. This sense of touch is what causes ... ...567-75. Epstein, Edmund L.à The Ordeal of Stephen Dedalus.à Carbondale andà Edwardsville:à Southern Illinois U P, 1971. Givens, Seon, ed.à James Joyce:à Two Decades of Criticism. New York:à 1948. 2nd ed.à 1963. Goldman, Arnold.à The Joyce Paradox:à Form and Freedom in his Fiction.à Evanston,à IL:à Northwestern U P,à 1966. Halper, Nathan.à The Early James Joyce.à Columbia Essays onà Modern Writers.à à Ed.à George Stade.à New York:à Columbia U P, 1973. Joyce, James.à A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man.à The Portable James Joyce.à Ed.à à Harryà Levin.à Newà York:à Penguin, 1976. Levin, Harry.à "The Artist." James Joyce, A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man:à à Text, Criticism, and Notes.à Ed.à Chester G. Anderson.à New York:à Penguin,à 1968.à 399-415. Wright, David G.à Characters of Joyce.à Dublin:à Gill and Macmillan, 1983. Ã
Archetypes in John Keats La Belle Dame Sans Merci: A Ballad Essay
Archetypes in John Keats' "La Belle Dame Sans Merci: A Ballad" During the Romantic Movement in literature, numerous writers fed off one anotherââ¬â¢s ideas; thus, creating various patterns which reoccur throughout literary works. According to ââ¬Å"The Literature Network,â⬠John Keats is ââ¬Å"usually regarded as the archetype of the Romantic writer.â⬠Therefore, Keats himself is thought to be the original model for the writer during the Romantic Era. In his poem, ââ¬Å"La Belle Dame sans Merci: A Ballad,â⬠Keats uses various archetypes which provide added meaning and depth to this work of literature. The archetype may be defined as ââ¬Å"the original model from which something is developed or made; in literary criticism, those images, figures, character types, settings, and story patterns thatâ⬠¦are universally shared by people across culturesâ⬠(Murfin and Ray 29). Analytical psychologist Carl Jung believes that archetypes are ââ¬Å"embedded deep in humanityââ¬â¢s collective unconscious and involve ââ¬Ëracial memoriesââ¬â¢ of situations, events, and relations that have been part of human experience from the beginningâ⬠(Murfin and Ray 29). Therefore, the archetype reoccurs over and over again in literary works from all time periods, such as seasonal connotations. For example, the season of spring is commonly associated with comedy, while summer is affiliated with romance. Archetypal, or Jungian, criticism focuses on the various archetypes which occur in literature. It emerged in the 1930s and primarily ââ¬Å"focuses on those patterns in a particular literary work that commonly recur in other literary worksâ⬠(Murfin and Ray 28). Northrop Frye, author of The Anatomy of Criticism, ââ¬Å"viewed the vast corpus of literary works as a ââ¬Ëself-contained literar... ...ot present within the poem, readers would not automatically associate the characters and images with a prior memory; thus, readers would not be able to become aware of the circumstances and nature of the characters quite as easily. Therefore, the archetypal characters and images in Keatsââ¬â¢ ââ¬Å"La Belle Dame sans Merci: A Balladâ⬠provide important insights into the depth and meaning of the characters and occurrences within the poem itself. Works Cited ââ¬Å"John Keats.â⬠The Literature Network. 21 Feb. 2006 . Keats, John. ââ¬Å"La Belle Dame sans Merci: A Ballad.â⬠The Norton Anthology of English Literature Seventh Edition, Volume 2. Ed. M.H. Abrams and Stephen Greenblatt. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2000. 845-846. Murfin, Ross & Ray, Supryia M. The Bedford Glossary of Critical and Literary Terms: Second Edition. Boston: Bedford/St. Martinââ¬â¢s, 2003.
Friday, August 2, 2019
How Technology Has Affected the Capabilities
IntroductionRecognizing the identity of a person is a major problem encountered by most of the justice and security systems, especially when an individual provides false information. Until recently, the methods of providing the true identity of criminals have been few and prone to errors (Davis, Weiss, 2009). With the implementation of modern computerized technologies, communication capabilities of specialized databases (such as the fingerprint identifiers) have been made effective and accurate. In this paper, the effect of technology on the communication capabilities of specialized databases in criminal justice will be analyzed, by comparing the facial recognition and iris scan techniques of identification and discussing the overall positive and negative effects of these technologies on criminal justice system.How technology has affected the capabilities of specialized databases in the criminal justice systemIn trying to make their work easier and more effective, the justice and sec urity personnel have always looked into the advancing technological methods to enhance communication capabilities within the justice system. The introduction of two-way radio and increased use of automobile have helped in improving the effectiveness of communication databases and responding to criminal incidents (Seaskate Inc. 1998). Modern technology has introduced many methods of specialized databases which have become exceedingly useful in crime investigation and response to incidences.The specialized databases utilize computerized techniques to identify criminals or suspects as well as to facilitate communication between the police, the general public and amongst other security personnel. The most used specialized databases by the security and justice system to provide identification of individuals include the Mobile Data Terminals, Live Scans, Iris Scans, Facial Recognition and the AFIS (Scherpenzeel, 2008). These technologies make individual identification easier, more accurat e and more effective in terms of time and cost. Both police officers and prosecutors have in many occasions applied them in identifying, judging, imprisoning or even in releasing criminals (Reichert, 2001)Comparison between Facial Recognition and Iris ScanIris scan refers to a technique of biometric identification using high tech recognition patterns which utilize images of a personââ¬â¢s iris. Iris cameras are used to perform detections of an individualââ¬â¢s identity using mathematical analysis of random patterns visible in the iris. The technique uses a combination of pattern recognition, computer vision, optics and statistical inferences (Find Biometrics, n. d).Facial recognition technique on the other hand is a computerized application which identifies an individual from a video outline or digital image. It is used in criminal justice systems to identify people by comparing the selected facial appearance from a specified facial database. This technique uses unalterable ph ysical facial structures (say the space between centers of an individualââ¬â¢s pupils of the eye or the diameter of a persons eye balls) and through algorithm, finite computerized set of steps are used to solve the problem, by translating the image into numerical values (Davis, Weiss, 2009).Iris scan is an internal detection method while the facial recognition is an external detection technique. Unlike the iris scan which uses an internal organ of the body, the facial recognition technique is done using certain parts of an individual face such jaws, cheekbones, nose or the eyes: these features are applied in searching for images matching with them. Facial recognition has been criticized because it uses external parts of the body which are likely to change over time through long exposure to manual work, use of facial cosmetics or plastic surgery (Titanium, 2010).These changes can completely transform and individualââ¬â¢s physical appearance, thus making it hard to be identified from a crowd. However, the method has one merit the iris scan and other biometric methods lack; it doesnââ¬â¢t call for any help from the individual being testedââ¬âif the system is properly designed and effectively installed in places such as multiplexes and airports, it can easily pick out the required subject from a crowd.For other biometric techniques such as the iris scan, speech recognition and fingerprints, the subject must be involved in the detection process and mass identification cannot apply (Titanium, 2010). Nonetheless, Iris scan is more reliable since it is not dependent on light or sight, but depends on the pattern of the iris. The facial recognition technique can fail due to poor lighting, long hair, use of sunglasses and other small resolution images and objects that relatively cover the face (Titanium, 2010).The overall positive and negative effects of the new techniques on the criminal justice systemBasically, the new technologies in the criminal justice and communication have greatly improved the way in which criminal identification and tracing is conducted by the justice and security systems. To begin with, specialized databases are used either complimentary or alternatively to ensure that accurate results are made. This implies that in one instance, both the facial recognition and fingerprints can be applied for the same specimen or subject when there are doubts or ambiguity regarding identity.This ensures that minimal errors occur, thus reducing the chances of wrong identification (Scherpenzeel, 2008). Furthermore, the new technologies have reduced the costs that used to be incurred in tracking down criminals. Such costs included travel costs, paying witnesses, interviewing individuals, costs of detaining many suspects before identifying the guilty criminal. More so, problems that used to be encountered due to physical transformation of an individual as a result of surgeries, injuries and use of cosmetics have now been overcome through the use of specialized databases like the speech recognition and iris scan biometrics (Scherpenzeel, 2008)..However, the new technologies have had a number of negative effects on the criminal justice system. The most common negative effect is the fact that this new technologies require a lot of professionalism and skill, not only in criminology, but also in statistics, mathematics and computer technology. However, many people do not possess this combined qualifications and this leads to shortage of personnel in the criminal investigation department.As such, the process of identification becomes slower since it is entrusted with few specialists who are cannot be able to handle all the cases presented to them. In some other cases, semi-skilled people have been entrusted the work, resulting to wrong identification or non identification (Reichert 2001). Other problems usually result from system breakdowns or corruption of system files which affect the validity of the results. Co rruption of operating systems is mostly done by people within the criminal justice system who wish to obstruct certain criminal identification processes for personal reasons (Scherpenzeel, 2008).Since some of this technologies are still relatively new (such as the iris scan and live scan), à most of the criminal justice systems find it too expensive to adopt them due to the high initial installation costs and therefore, they are rarely used. Other specialized databases like the facial scanner pose problems in places of installation such as railways and airports due to security factors. This has made it difficult for the justice system to continually use this technique in identifying wanted individuals (Reichert 2001).Preferred specialized databasesAmong all the types of specialized databases and biometric scanners and devices used for detection of identification today, the iris scanner has proved to be most effective and accurate. This is because, an individualââ¬â¢s iris canno t be impeded by contact lenses and glasses; it can be accurately scanned from ten centimeters to several meters away. In addition the iris remains constant for a long time unless injuries occurââ¬âone enrolment scan lasts for a lifetime. Although certain surgical and medical operations may affect the color and shape of the iris, its fine texture maintains stability for decades. Furthermore, it can still be used on blind people because the technology is not dependent on sight but on pattern. (Find Biometrics, n. d).ConclusionThe use of specialized databases in criminal justice system is a great move towards improving the effectiveness and efficiency of criminal identification. It is important that these databases be implemented across the globe for detecting and tracking down criminals, since the negative effects of these technologies are so meager, and easily solvable as compared to the overall positive impact.ReferencesFind Biometrics (n. d). Iris scanners and recognition. Retr ieved fromhttp://www.findbiometrics.com/iris-recognition/Davis, M., & Weiss, J (2009). Facial recognition technology in law enforcement. Retrieved fromhttp://www.hendonpub.com/resources/articlearchive/details.aspx?ID=31Seaskate Inc. (1998). The evolution and development of police technology. Retrieved fromhttp://www.police-technology.net/id59.htmlTitanium (2010). Comparing face recognition against other types of biometric authenticationmethods. Retrieved fromhttp://www.titanium-tech.com/download/CompareBio.pdfReichert, K. (2001). Promising approaches to addressing crime: use of information technologyin law enforcement. University of south Wales, Australia.Scherpenzeel, R. (2008). Key issues in introducing information technology in criminal justice.retieved from http://www.uncjin.org/other/korebo/chapter3.pdf
Thursday, August 1, 2019
Philosophy and Its Branches Essay
The study of the fundamental nature of knowledge, reality, and existence, especially when considered as an academic discipline. Philosophy is the study of general and fundamental problems concerning matters such as existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language. It is distinguished from other ways of addressing such problems by its critical, generally systematic approach and its reliance on rational argument. Origin: Middle English: from Old French philosophie, via Latin from Greek philosophia ââ¬Ëlove of wisdomââ¬â¢. Philosophy comes from the Greek for ââ¬Å"love of wisdom,â⬠giving us two important starting points: love (or passion) and wisdom (knowledge, understanding). Philosophy sometimes seems to be pursued without passion as if it were a technical subject. Although there is a role for dispassionate research, philosophy must derive from some passion for the ultimate goal: a reliable, accurate understanding ourselves and our world. Branches of philosophy: The following branches are the main areas of study: â⬠¢Metaphysics is the study of the nature of being and the world. Traditional branches are cosmology and ontology. â⬠¢Epistemology is concerned with the nature and scope of knowledge, and whether knowledge is possible. Among its central concerns has been the challenge posed by skepticism and the relationships between truth, belief, and justification. â⬠¢Ethics, or ââ¬Å"moral philosophyâ⬠, is concerned with questions of how persons ought to act or if such questions are answerable. The main branches of ethics are meta-ethics, normative ethics, and applied ethics. â⬠¢Political philosophy is the study of government and the relationship of individuals and communities to the state.
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