Latin American transitions Essay Example for Free

Latin American transitions Essay Besides, scholars regard existence of effective multi-party political system in the country as a necessary element for ensuring efficient control of the society over authorities (Randall Svasand, 2001, p. 77). For example, party development is regarded among scholars as an essential element of democratization in Eastern Europe, the development of political parties was an omnipresent topic especially with regard to the new democracies in Africa, Asia and Latin America (Penna, 1998, p. 108). While definitions of democracy abound and there is little agreement on which factors contribute to bringing democracy about or to its consolidation, a recurrent refrain is the vital role that is played by parties. Surveying prospects for consolidation in sub-Saharan Africa, scholars suggests the key indicator is â€Å"the capacity to develop a political party system which is both integrative between different communities, and competitive between different parties† (cited in Randall Svasand, 2001, p.75). Similar conclusions about the importance of parties are being expressed by many experts in the field. Moreover, the role of parties has received especial attention in the literature on Latin American transitions. Scholars argue that in assessing prospects for democratic survival and consolidation in this region much may depend on political parties (Armijo, 2005, p. 2024). Scholars noted one more important aspect of political activities – that the extent to which political democracy and equality can be achieved in any society is a function of the distribution of access to political resources. They describe political resources as anything that can be used to influence government decisions: money, wealth, social standing, honor, reputation, legal status, knowledge, cognitive abilities, information, coercive capacity, organiza ¬tions, etc. (Penna, 1998, p. 105). It seems, then, that to democratize, access to these political resources must be distributed to a wider and wider circle of the population. This allows more and more people not only to participate in the political process, but to have influence over decisions. In this situation not only high art of political authorities is in demand, but in fact democratic structure of the parties and their ability to carry out effective dialogue with other parties functioning in the developing country to achieve consensus.

The history and spread of probation in America

The history and spread of probation in America The term probation comes from the Latin verb probare, meaning to prove or to test. Throughout history probation has been used in various forms. From its earliest American origins probation has broadened and expanded immensely in its function within the criminal justice system. The terms and conditions of probation continue to evolve, as well as the various consequences imposed if said conditions are not closely adhered to. Probation is a privilege granted to particular law violators in lieu of imprisonment. Just as the root word derived from, probation is a test issued to an offender, offering them a chance to prove themselves. HISTORY Elements of probation can be seen throughout history. There is reference in Mosaic Law to the right of sanctuary. Right of sanctuary offered cities of refuge to killers seeking to escape retribution. While probation as we know it today is not an escape from punishment, it can be seen as a sort of sanctuary in that probationers are offered the opportunity to atone for their crimes and maintain in the free society. The suspended sentence, commonly used in the Middle Ages in England, mirrors probation in that it can be revoked and a prison sentence imposed if the offender fails to stay out of trouble for the amount of time specified. Suspended sentence at this time, however, did not include any kind of supervision, nor were there any set goals of reform. There was also a form of temporary release used by the courts during this time. Binding over for good behavior offered offenders an opportunity to secure pardons or lesser sentences. Matthew Davenport Hill was a English barrister and judge in Eighteenth Century England. As Recorder of Birmingham, a judicial post, he instituted a practice for individuals who did not appear to be hopeless cases. In witnessing the sentencing of youthful offenders to the custody of their parents for supervision, Hill decided that those offenders who showed hope of rehabilitation could also be placed in the hands of willing guardians. As part of this arrangement these willing guardians would receive periodic visits from local police to stay current on the progress of the released offender. JOHN AUGUSTUS John Augustus, credited as the Father of Probation, embarked upon a journey that would revolutionize the field of corrections in America. His efforts began when he persuaded a local court in Massachusetts to release into his custody an adult drunk, instead of imprisoning him. This challenge was met with great success. A shoe cobbler in Boston, Augustus supervised the man, paid his fines, and helped him achieve sobriety. His efforts broadened to and he began taking responsibility for juveniles. Again his efforts were fruitful and the court was pleased with his results. Reform became a true possibility. Over the course of his eighteen years as a volunteer probation officer [1841-1858], Augustus bailed 1,946 men, women and children. A mere ten of this number forfeited their bond. The first probation statute was passed in 1878 shortly after his death. Augustus work was a remarkable accomplishment when measured against any standard. (New York City Department of Probation) THE SPREAD OF PROBATION By 1900, Vermont, Rhode Island, New Jersey, New York, Minnesota, and Illinois passed probation laws; by 1910, 32 more states had passed legislation establishing juvenile probation; and by 1930 juvenile probation was legislated in every state except Wyoming. (Office of Probation and Correctional Alternatives) Every state in the country offers probation to both adults and juveniles today. While the structure may vary from state to state the possibility for reform remains a strong and solid objective. Probation not only offers the offender incentive to change it saves the public enormous funds as the cost is minimal when compared to the increasing costs of incarceration. Probation also serves to abate the current concerns of overcrowding in prisons. THE USES/GOAL OF PROBATION Probation has many practical functions in the field of corrections. As mentioned above, probation is privilege not a right. One of the many aims of probation is protecting the public. Probation is generally issued to low risk, non-violent offenders. Often these offenders are open to the idea of treatment and rehabilitation in an effort to avoid becoming professional offenders. Until recently, probation was predominantly used for first offense misdemeanants, however, with the implementation of get tough laws and the war on drugs saw the court system becoming more and more bogged down with cases and the prison system became increasingly prone to overcrowding. Depending on the sentencing guidelines for the crime committed, the accused may offer to plead guilty to a lesser charge. Probation is a valuable tool for the offender, the district attorney, and the court system. If the criteria of a case make the offender eligible for probation a presentence investigation report is ordered to determine if probation could be a valid and effective punishment. The presentence investigation report includes the offenders background and their disposition to their charges as well as other useful information. CONDITIONS OF PROBATION/INTERMEDIATE SANCTIONS If probation is granted, several conditions may be imposed. These conditions will be specifically designed to the individual based on their criminal record and the nature of the crime they have pled guilty to. There are various levels of probation. The lowest level of probation is unsupervised. This is when the offender is placed on probation and perhaps ordered to pay fines and court costs but is not obligated to a regular interaction with a probation officer. They are generally ordered to call in on arranged dates and update the probation officer as to their progress as well as maintain gainful employment in the community. Supervised Probation requires the offender to report to their local probation office on an established number of days per week or month, depending on the level of supervision. Often supervised probation will contain conditions such as: reporting regularly, failing to engage in any further criminal activity, submitting to searches, abstaining from using drugs, abstaining from owning a firearm, limiting alcohol intake, abstaining from associating with known criminals and notifying their supervising officer of any major changes such as relocation or job change. (Allen, Latessa, and Ponder 93) The probationer is required to pay a monthly supervision fee and a schedule to pay other fines and court fees imposed is set up between the offender and the probation officer. Certain individuals have specific conditions of probation to which they must adhere. This is sometimes as a result of the crime they committed (including factors of the crime, such as drug abuse). Specific conditions include (but are not limited to): methadone maintenance, taking Antibuse, attending 12-Step meetings, drug testing, treatment (inpatient or outpatient), and vocational training. (Allen, Latessa, and Ponder 93) These conditions are imposed to aid the probationer in successful completion of their court ordered term of supervision. There has been an adequate success rate with these programs to date. Special conditions of probation are additional punishments ordered by the courts and act to strengthen supervision. The goal is to reduce recidivism by addressing the underlying cause of the individuals criminal behavior as well as protect the local community. Special conditions of probation are: house arrest, electronic monitoring, intensive supervision, halfway house residency, boot camp programs and split sentences. (Allen, Latessa, and Ponder 93) Imposing these special conditions is at times the last line of defense for keeping the offender out of prison. In some cases, if probation is violated, additional conditions can be imposed in an effort to get the offender back on track. REVOCATION OF PROBATION Failure to adhere to these conditions, excessive violations of these conditions or failing to remain current on court mandated payments can result in probation revocation. When an offender is sentenced to a specific amount of time in jail or prison, that sentence is sometimes suspended in favor of placing the individual on probation. Repetitive violations or new charges can be cause to revoke that probation and resentence the offender or activate the sentence that they are currently on probation to avoid serving. There are a variety of reasons offenders are unable to comply with the conditions of their probation. Some are indifferent or hostile, being unwilling or unable to cooperate with their supervising officer or the court. Some are too immature emotionally to comply with directions. (Allen, Latessa, and Ponder 93) Technical probation violations require the offender to re-appear in court in front of the judge. If the probationer fails to appear a warrant will be issued for their arrest. Revocation is a serious matter and the probationer has the right to counsel for the hearing. SUMMARY The use of probation in our nations criminal justice system is widespread. Probation allows the offender the freedom to earn a living and support their family, it allows the community to feel safer knowing that these individuals are under close supervision, it saves the state money that could better be spent on reform rather than incarceration and the building of new prisons. The number of Americans currently on probation is astounding. According to the United Stated Department of Justice at the end of 2008 there were better than 4.2 million adults on probation and another almost 830,000 on parole. That number indicates that 1 in 45 adults in the U.S. is currently under community supervision. These figures show the importance of probation in America today.

The Emerging Technology Trends In Computer Hardware Information Technology Essay

The Emerging Technology Trends In Computer Hardware Information Technology Essay The future of computer hardware is very fragile due to problems between software and hardware engineers and software now that cannot keep up with the material; the material may be decreasing as the software has priority. One thing to note is that the material cannot be totally eliminated. The market will always be a demand for faster hardware, lighter, more coherent and comprehensive. Arguably, the material can not hire as many jobs as the software does now because of the need and progress in software technology related to technology equipment. The material is and will carry on generating new applications that will make life easier and business more flourishing. Apply a new type of technology used in hardware applications, known as COTS. Commercial and product standards commonly known as COTS are proven and reliable in changing computer world. COTS allow software developers to provide new products, and hardware platform for adding custom hardware; a new device is the latest USB standard is also a past director of external equipment transfers. Cots are devices to help correct answers and progress on new computers, such as the XML protocol and new wireless advances. Another technology is the new hardware unit is microcontroller. The micro-controller unit (MCU) complete final products to the automotive market for smart cards. 16-bit and 32-bit MCU + are the main products of high-end consumer, the automotive and industrial control equipment. MPU Base application and wide variety of entrenched memory and other technologies add to their permanent unit and revenue growth. MCUs will carry on to see their make use of in products outside the home machine, which will allow hardware developers in the right direction for diversified applications. The tension between hardware engineers and software has led to an interesting correlation. Both types of engineers must learn to work together because the software and hardware engineers need each other in an appropriate communication to achieve various objectives. The types of material that is developed must cease and forth between the phase of software development for all types of applications across the board for all the different courses. With the increase in CPU capacity, created the software will always take more than enough room to allow the continued growth of the CPU in the industry. In the research project is completed, the balance between hardware and software engineers stay just as important for the optimal completion. Trends in computer software In an interview with John Bruggeman, Chief Marketing Manager, Wind River, a software design company based in the United Kingdom, which explains how the software has grown much faster than hardware applications. Bruggeman specialized software in Linux, which has seen faster growth than expected. For us the Linux business has grown from zero to 50 million dollars in 24 months. Not only Linux, but Amazon has created a unique opportunity to expand. Amazon Web Services has launched a new enterprise IT management software products, which include the rental of servers, instead of forcing companies to buy directly from a number of expensive servers. Technology recently published an article So far the market has taken the idea of Amazon and Amazon has shown that Web services have already won clients such as The New York Times, Red Hat and SanDisk. Other companies, like IBM and Sun are struggling to move to a new model. Sun already offers online rental system and expects to sell the equipment. We have the infrastructure, says Greg Papadopoulos, chief technology officer of Sun If you do not you can beat them, their hand. Suns final report shows that the Amazon Web Services functions have hit a new market that will continue to be successful. What are the current trends in computer hardware platforms and the evolving mobile platform, grid computing, and cloud computing? Mobile platform: more and more business computing is moving from PCs and desktop machines to mobile devices like cell phones and Smartphones. Data transmissions, Web surfing, e-mail and instant messaging, digital content displays, and data exchanges with internal corporate systems are all available through a mobile digital platform. Net books, small low-cost lightweight subnotebooks that are optimized for wireless communication and Internet access, are included. Grid computing Grid computing combines computer from systems multiple administrative domains to achieve common aims to solve a simple task and can disappear very fast. A grid computing key strategies is to use middleware to divide and distribute pieces of a program between several computers, sometimes up to several thousands. Grid computing is to compute in a distributed manner, which may also involve the aggregation of cluster systems based on large computer companies. The size of a grid can vary from a small restricted to a network of computer workstations in an enterprise, as for large public works across many companies and networks. The idea of a limited network may also be known as an intra-node, while the idea of bigger, wider networks may refer to inter-nodes. The grids are in the form of distributed computing; where the super virtual computer is composed of many networked computers to perform tasks freely collaborate large. This technique has been applied to computationally intensive problems in science, math and academic volunteer computing, and is used by commercial enterprises, such as various applications such as drug development, economic forecasting, seismic analysis and back-office data processing, support for e-commerce and web services. Grid computing gives a safe way to solve Grand Challenge issues, like proteins, financial modeling, earthquake simulation, weather patterns. The grid provides a way to use IT resources optimally inside an organization. They also offer a means of providing information for their technology and commercial business customers, with customers paying only for what they use, such as water and electricity. Grid computing is used by the grid of the National Science Foundation, National Technology, NASAs Information Power Grid, Pratt Whitney, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and American Express. The European Union has been a great supporter of grid computing. A lot of studies and projects have been funded by the European Commission Framework Programme. Lots of projects are emphasis here, but 2 of them deserve special point out: Enabling Grids BEinGRID and for e-Science. Business Experiments in GRID is a project, and also have a 1/4th amount of the whole project is funded by the European Commission as an incorporated Project under the 6th Framework Programme Sponsorship Program (FP6). Introduced in June 2006 and the project lasts for 2 years, until November 2009. The research is organized by the Atos Origin. According to the project sheet is their mission to create effective ways to promote the adoption of grid computing across Europe and to stimulate research on innovative business models using Grid technologies. Extracting best practices and common themes of the experimental implementations, two groups of consultants to analyze a number of pilots, technique and business. The results of this cross analysis provided by the TI website called www.tude.com. The project is important not only for its longevity, but also for its financial plan to 24.8 million Euros, is the greatest of all integrated projects in FP6. The grids of the E-science, which is founded the European Union and also sites in USA and the most part of the Asian continent, is a follow-up project of the European DataGrid (EDG), and is probably the largest computer network on the planet. This, together with the LHC Computing Grid (LCG) was developed to support the experiment at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. LCG Project at CERN is based on the need to handle large amounts of data, where the rates are required to store several gigabytes per second. A list of active sites within LCG can be found online as well as real-time monitoring of the EGEE infrastructure. The software and documentation is also accessible to the public. It is speculated that optical fiber dedicated links, such as those installed by CERN to meet the needs of large volumes of data from the LCG may one day be available for home users and Internet service reach very fast approximately a thousand times faster than the usual broadband internet connection. Until April 27, 2007, United Devices United Devices Cancer Research Project based on its Grid MP product, which cleans the PC cycle of volunteering over the Internet. Grid MP in June 2005 ran about 3000000 machines. Cloud computing Cloud computing is computing on the Internet where shared resources, software and information is provided for computers and other devices on demand, with the grid. Cloud computing is a natural change of the well known to use of virtualization, SOA and utility computing. The details are extracted from consumers who no longer required specialized knowledge or control over the technology infrastructure that supports the tag. Cloud computing describes a new addition, consumption and delivery model for IT services Internet-based and are generally over-the delivery of Internet resources dynamically evolving and often virtualized. This is a result of product and ease of access to computer sites that offer Internet distance. This is mostly takes the form of internet based applications and tools that users can access and get use through an internet website browser as if it were a program installed locally on your own computer system. NIST provides a definition a little more objective and specific here. Tag word as a metaphor for the Internet based on the design previously used tags to represent the telephone network, and then to describe the patterns of Internet computer network as an abstraction that represents the underlying infrastructure. A typical cloud computing provider to provide common business applications online that is accessible from another web service or software as a Web browser, while the software and data stored on servers Most cloud computing infrastructure consists of services offered by the centers joint and integrated servers. Clouds often appear as single point of access to the computing needs of consumers. Commercial facilities are generally required to meet Quality of Service (QoS) of clients, and generally include service level agreements (SLA). The big cloud providers include Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Some large IT companies who are actively involved in cloud computing, Fujitsu, Dell, Hewlett Packard, IBM, VMware, NetApp and Microsoft. There are several doubts and confusions in relation to the phrase called hybrid when applied to the cloud a criterion description of the word hybrid Cloud has not yet risen. Cloud term hybrid has been used to assign 2 clouds. Separate conference ( private, public external or internal ) or a blend of clouds virtualized server instances that are used in combination with the actual physical hardware. The correct definition of the term hybrid Cloud; is probably the use of physical hardware and virtualized server instances tag together to provide a unique and common. Two clouds were collected are more properly a combined cloud. A combined cloud computing environment composed of multiple combined internal or/and external suppliers would be typical for most companies By integrating cloud computing services to multiple users to facilitate the transition to the public cloud services while avoiding problems such as PCI compliance. Another perspective on the implementation of a web application in the cloud using hybrid Web hosting infrastructure is a mix between Cloud hosting and dedicated servers it is usually implemented as part of a Web cluster, where some nodes running real physical hardware and some running on the server where the clouds. How network economics, declining communication costs and technology standards affect IT infrastructure? Network economics: Economics refers to the Business Network, which will benefit from the network. This is where the value is a good or service increases as more people buy the product or service. Examples include websites like eBay, or if the iVillage community together and share ideas to help the website become a better business organization. Metcalfes Law explains the proliferation of computer use by showing that the value of network participants grows exponentially as the network becomes more members. As the number of members in a network increases linearly, the values of the overall system grows exponentially and theoretically continue to grow indefinitely with increasing membership. Declining communication costs: The communication costs are rapidly falling down daily. The costs of communication and the exponential growth in the size of the Internet is a driving force that affects the IT infrastructure. When there is a decline happened in the communication cost will reflect several advantages and disadvantages to the information technology infrastructure. The main advantage of decline of communication costs is when its get fall to a very small and approaches zero, the use of communications and computer exploits. Technology standards: According to the growth of IT industry, the standards of design and communication is getting improved and more competitive day by day. Technology standards and economies of scale release powerful lead to decreases in the prices that manufacturers focus on products manufactured by a single standard. No economies of scale, the information of any kind would be much more expensive than is the case today. Creating and maintaining a coherent IT infrastructure raises multiple challenges including: Making wise infrastructure investments, IT infrastructure is a major investment for the company. If too much is used for infrastructure will not be used to form drag its financial performance. If it is too little used, a major business services cannot be delivered and competitors of the companys better than investing in the company. Coordinating infrastructure components: attempts to create IT infrastructures, select a combination of vendors, people and technology services and fitting them together so they operate in a coherent whole. Dealing with scalability and technology change: as companies grow, they can easily find that their infrastructure. As companies shrink, they can get stuck in too much infrastructure has been purchased in better times. Scalability: the ability of the computer of a product or system expansion to serve more people without breaking down. Leadership and management: refers to who controls and manages the IT infrastructure.

Showalter’s Analysis of Chopin’s The Awakening Essay -- Chopin Awakeni

Showalter’s Analysis of Chopin’s The Awakening In â€Å"Tradition and the Female Talent: The Awakening as a Solitary Book,† Elaine Showalter makes a compelling argument that â€Å"Edna Pontellier’s ‘unfocused yearning’ for an autonomous life is akin to Kate Chopin’s yearning to write works that go beyond female plots and feminine endings† (204). Urging her reader to read The Awakening â€Å"in the context of literary tradition,† Showalter demonstrates the ways in which Chopin’s novel both builds upon and departs from the tradition of American women’s writing up to that point. Showalter begins with the antebellum novelists’ themes of women’s roles as mothers—especially the importance of the mother-daughter relationship—and women’s attachments with one another and then moves to the local colorists of the post-Civil War who claimed male and female models but who wrote that motherhood was not a suitable partner for the true artist. Accord ing to these women writers, a woman had to choose to be either an artist or a wife and mother; one negatively affected the other. The literary history then delves...

Explication Of Sharon Olds Poem, Late Poem To My Father :: essays research papers

Sharon Olds’ poem â€Å"Late Poem to My Father† exposes the profound effect that childhood trauma can have on someone, even in adulthood. The speaker of the poem invokes sadness and pity in the reader by reflecting on the traumatic childhood of her father, and establishes a cause and effect relationship between the abuse he endured as a child and the dependence he develops on alcohol as an adult. The idea of emotional retardation caused by childhood experiences is not uncommon, especially in our modern world of prevalent substance abuse, dysfunctional families, and child abuse. However, Olds’ poem is a moving testament to this tragic loss of innocence due to the powerful imagery she weaves throughout the first half of the poem. In addition, Olds skillfully uses figurative language and deliberate line breaks throughout the poem to develop the dismal sorrow her speaker feels while reflecting on the childhood of her father. The poem opens with the speaker experiencing an epiphany while contemplating on her father’s childhood, and later in the poem we learn that this contemplation is more specifically focused on the causes of her father’s dependence on alcohol. In the first seven lines of the poem she uses descriptive details to establish a dark, foreboding image of the setting. For example, in lines two and three she describes the house with â€Å"unlit rooms† and a â€Å"hot fireplace†. She goes on to portray her father as â€Å"a boy of seven, helpless, smart,...† which reinforces his innocence in this imagery of darkness. It is interesting to note how the speaker distinguishes these details, yet in lines three and six, she refers to her father’s father only as â€Å"the man†. She intentionally refers to him in this flat way so as to convey to the reader that he is unworthy of any characterization. She also omits characterization in line six when she writes, â€Å"there were things the man did near you,† purposely emphasizing â€Å"things† with no other explanation. This leads to the assumption that some actions are too abominable to convey in words, thus leaving us with a vast array of uncomfortable possibilities to consider. The description of the â€Å"sweet apples picked at their peak...rotted and rotted,†in lines nine and ten establishes a comparison between her father’s loss of innocence, and the ripe fruit being left to waste. In line eleven she writes, â€Å"past the cellar door the creek ran and ran† which is a contrast to the apples being trapped within the cellar (like the child in the house), and the creek being on the outside, where the idea of escape exists.

Data Analysis

To analyze the time series data, a statistical software (STATA) was used. In time series data analysis important required condition is stationarity of the data set. To test whether the time series is stationary or not, the two tests are used; the ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller) test and Zivot and Andrews test for unit root. Both of these tests have same null hypothesis that the series is non-stationary (unit root process). For ADF unit root test we need lag length for the given time series variables. The lag length is selected by using information criteria (HQIC, AIC, SBIC) mentioned in section [2.2]. We performed the unit root tests with both trend and constant. It is important because the graphs of the time series variables gives an indication, whether we will include the trend term in the model or not. We can check the t value as well for inclusion of trend term in the model. The graph of immigration, unemployment and inflation shows that these series have time trend, but GDP growth rate series has no trend. The Table 4 summarizes the results of ADF test at levels. The given table consists of test statistics value and p-value. In case of variable GROWTH, the hypothesis was rejected and we can say that GDP growth rate is stationary at levels. The remaining variables IMMIG, UNEMP and INF are non-stationary at levels. All these three variables are non-stationary, when ADF test is performed with trend and intercept in the model. Table 4: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Root at levelsVariables With intercept With trend and intercept Test statistics Z(t) P-value Test statistics P-valueIMMIG -0.838 0.8077 -2.825 0.1881UNEMP -1.398 0.5833 -2.503 0.3265GROWTH -5.671 0.0000 -5.587 0.0000INF -1.313 0.6231 -3.163 0.1032Since the series (IMMIG, UNEMP and INF) are not-stationary at levels, we take first difference for these three series. After taking the first differenced for IMMIG, UNEMP and INF series, the ADF test are then performed, as shown in table 5. Now these three variables are stationary at the first difference and they are said to be integrated of first order. Table 5: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Root at first differenceVariables With intercept With trend and intercept Test statistics Z(t) P-value Test statistics P-valueIMMIG -6.516 0.0000 -6.520 0.0000UNEMP -4.582 0.0001 -4.523 0.0014INF -7.967 0.0000 -7.891 0.0000 The results obtained from Zivot and Andrews test of unit are shown table 6. GDP growth rate has same results like in previous tests which is stationary at level with constant and trend and without trend. Unemployment rate and immigration are non-stationary series with or without trend. The inflation rate is stationary without trend but non-stationary when including trend term in the model. Zivot and Andrews test was reformed after taking first difference of the three non-stationary time series. The unemployment, immigration and inflation rate have a strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of unit root at first difference.Table 6. Zivot and Andrew unit root test for structural break (at levels)Variables With intercept With trend and intercept Test statistics Z(t) Break Year Test statistics Z(t) Break YearIMMIG -4.167 2006 -3.698 2002UNEMP -5.313 1992 -3.841 1997GROWTH -6.001*** 1994 -5.180*** 2005INF -5.025** 1992 -3.830 1977Note: significant at 10% level, **significant at 5% level, *** significant at 1% level Table 7. Zivot and Andrew unit root test for structural break (at first difference)Variables With intercept With trend and intercept Test statistics Z(t) Test statistics Z(t)D. IMMIG -7.032*** -6.413***D.UNEMP -5.600*** -4.632**D.INF -7.092*** -6.896*** Note: *significant at 10% level, **significant at 5% level, *** significant at 1% level The empirical results of vector autoregressive model are investigated in the form of Granger causality test and Impulse response function. In this thesis, the time series variables used on levels to perform VAR model, because GDP growth rate is stationary on level and the remaining three variables (IMMIG, UNEMP and INF) are stationary at first difference. As mentioned in section [2.1], various studies have indicated that vector auto regressive model can be estimated on levels of variables.The information criterion is used to select the lag length for a vector autoregressive model with four time series variables. The three information criterion (HQIC, AIC, SBIC) gives same lag length, which is two. But we preferred SBIC for selecting the lag length. After computing the results of vector autoregressive model, there is need to test for autocorrelation of residuals and stability of the model. The LM Test for Residual Autocorrelation is used to test for autocorrelation. The results of the test shows that there is no evidence of autocorrelation found between the residuals. The resulting VAR model gives all eigenvalues less than one and these eigenvalues lies inside the unit circle shown in appendix [A4], which confirms that estimated VAR model is stable.The Granger causality test is performed by using the results of VAR model. Table 8 shows the results of Granger-causality. The null and alternative hypotheses is used for immigration variable are H_0: Immigration does not Granger cause unemployment rateH_1: Immigration granger causes the unemployment rate H_0: Immigration does not granger cause GDP growth rate H_1: Immigration granger causes the GDP growth rate ? H?_0: Immigration does not Granger cause inflation rate H_1: Immigration granger causes the inflation rateIn first column of table 8 the null hypothesis is shown and degree of freedom is in 2nd column. The next two columns give test statistics value and p-value. We set the level of significance to be at 5%. The degree of freedom for all pairs is used 2, because the estimated VAR model has lag length 2. The results obtained from granger causality test for first null hypothesis have p-value 0.194, which is a clear evidence that we cannot reject null hypothesis. It showed that immigration does not granger cause unemployment rate. For hypothesis about effect of immigration on GDP growth rate, the p-value is 0.35, which means again that we cannot reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the immigration does not granger cause GDP growth rate. The same results found in case of immigration and inflation rate hypothesis, where the p-value is 0.186. It is found that immigrations do not granger cause inflation rate. In these three cases we cannot reject the null hypothesis. Table 8: Engle-Granger test for Causality:Null Hypothesis df Chi-sq Prob > chi-sq decision IMMIG does not granger cause UNEMP 2 3.2787 0.194 Do not reject H0IMMIG does not granger cause GROWTH 2 2.1011 0.350 Do not reject H0IMMIG does not granger cause INF 2 3.3626 0.186 Do not reject H0The impulse response function obtained from vector autoregressive model results are presented in figures (6-9). The impulse response function in the figure (7) shows the response of unemployment rate after a shock in the immigration. At first two steps, the resulting effect is negative, but after two steps it has a positively increasing trend till the fourth step. At the fourth step it has a maximum value near 2 and after fourth step it goes down, which eventually disappeared at sixth step. The impulse response function in this case build an idea that immigrations have positive short run relationship with unemployment.The figure (8) displays the response of growth rate to a shock in immigrations. It shows the negative relation in first three years. After the third year, it tends towards positive side and after sixth year it fades away. In figure (9) the response of inflation rate to a shock in immigration show that in first three years it has positive value. But after third years, it is going towards negative side till sixth year and after sixth year it has no effect. It shows that in first years immigration and inflation have positive significance short run relationship and after this period it has negative relation till sixth year. Figure 6: Graph of Impulse Response Function Figure 7: Response of UNEMP to a shock in IMMIG Figure 8: Response of GROWTH to a shock in IMMG Figure 9: Response of INF to a shock in IMMG ? ConclusionsThe main objective of this thesis is to investigate the effect of immigration on macro-economic variables in Sweden. In this study unemployment rate, GDP growth rate and inflation rate are considered as the economic variables. The annual data for period 1970-2014 is used to examine the relationship between these variables in Sweden. We estimated VAR model for a short run relationship. The estimated VAR model satisfied the stability condition and by using Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for autocorrelation, it was made sure that there is no autocorrelation between the residuals at any lag order 2. The granger causality analysis performed by using the results of VAR model. The granger causality results shows that the immigration does not effect the unemployment rate, growth rate and inflation rate in Sweden during the study period. It is concluded that immigration has no short run relationship with these three macro-economic variables. The results obtained from impulse response function shows that the immigration has short run positive relationship with the unemployment rate after first few years. On the other hand, the immigration have negative effect on growth rate in first three periods, but after these periods, the reverse effect has been observed. There is a positive relationship found in first two years between immigration and inflation rate. But after two years it has negative relationship between immigration and inflation rate. The impulse response function results shows that immigration affect these economic variables for five to six periods and after that it have no such effect. This indicates that in the beginning the immigrants does not participate in the economic growth. One probable cause of this could be the exposure to a new language in Sweden, which produces language barriers. Which also verifies that the GDP growth rate becomes static relative to the immigrations after few years, since language barrier is a temporary effect. However, considering more economic variables which could be affected by the immigration may lead to more findings in Sweden's economic growth. Moreover, increasing the sample size of the study variables could yield more improved results. Data Analysis According to Parahoo (2006, p.375), data analysis is â€Å"an integrated part of the research design†, which is a way of appreciating the data before presenting them in an understandable manner. While Authors(De Vos, 2005:333; Neuman, 2006:16) describes data analysis as a way in which the data was captured, analysed, and the statistical procedures used in order to bring meaning and measure to it. For the purpose of this mix method, study both qualitative and quantitative data collected from the field will be analysed. Content analysis will be used to analyze the data that will be gathered from focus group interviews. The process of analysing the qualitative data will start immediately after the focus group discussions is concluded. Therefore, the aim of this study is to follow the process outlined by Babbie and Mouton (2010:493, 494, 495); Creswell and Plano Clark (2007:129); Schurink, Fouchà © & De Vos (2011:403-404); Singh (2007:82); Welman, Kruger and Mitchell (2005:211) to achieved the following: managed or organised data so as to make it easily retrievable and managed; analysed, described, and classified data; represented and visualised data so as to be able to present and place them in the form of themes and statements. The Data will also be validated and interpreted (Alasuutari et al., 2008:362, 363; Creswell & Plano Clark, 2007:35; Flick, 2008:16; Schurink, Fouchà © & De Vos, 2011:417). According to Moore & McCabe (2005), this is the type of research whereby data gathered is categorized in themes and sub-themes, will be able to be comparable. This will help us to reduce and simplify the data collection processes, while at the same time producing results to assist in the measurement of using quantitative techniques. Another aim of the content analysis in this research is to assist us to structure the qualitative data collected in a way that satisfies the accomplishment of research objectives. However, human error can be highly involved in the content analysis process, since there is the risk for researchers to misinterpret the data gathered, thereby generating false and unreliable conclusions (Krippendorff & Bock, 2008).Thus, in additional to content analysis, the Statistical weighted mean will be used to answer the research questions. Most of the response options in the questionnaire instrument will be weighted as shown below:Table xx: Likert Scale of SignificanceStrongly Agree Agree Undecided/ Neutral Strongly Disagree DisagreeSA A U/N SD D5 Points 4 Points 3 Points 2 Points 1 PointThe acceptance point for the items will be 2.50. Nworgu, (1991), purports that the t-test is testing hypothesis about the differences between means when the sample size is small. Therefore, we will be using, the t-test statistical analysis to test the three null hypotheses used in this study. On the other hand, if the calculated t-value is greater than the critical value of t, the null hypothesis will be rejected and the alternative, which is â€Å"significance† will be accepted. By extension if the calculated t-value is lesser than the critical t-value, the null hypothesis (Research questions) will be accepted and the alternative rejected. However, the null hypotheses will be tested at 0.05 (5 %) level of significance. This means 5 chances of being in error out of every 100 cases. Therefore, any chances of error will be very low.The statistical weight mean will be supported and complemented by the use of IBM SPSS Statistics 19 (Singh, 2007:83). According to some authors(Babbie& Mouton, 2010:459; Fouchà © & Bratley, 2011:251) the researcher will be using descriptive methods to describe, analyse, and summarise numerical data into major characteristics of the study without distorting or losing too much of valuable information, so that it is simple, manageable, and more understandable and to facilitate eventual processing of data, the researcher will also be analysed quantitative data according to different themes of the measuring instrument (Delport & Roestenburg, 2011:196). Most importantly data will be presented and displayed in the form of table/s and graphic/s. (Fouchà © & Bratley, 2011:257).

Blended Families Essay

Cartwright (2010) found that couples who re-marry after divorce can often be led to that decision by the need for an intimate relationship and the benefits they receive from that relationship. The need for financial means also brought some to the decision that they would cohabitate before re-marrying. Cartwright also came to the conclusion that while a lot of the participants in the study were aware of the possible difficulties of becoming a blended family, most of them did not talk to one another about certain parenting issues such as discipline and rules. Most of the participants also did not discuss how they would handle this change for the children involved in the two families that were blending. Cartwright says that these findings supported earlier research that suggested that couples who are blending their families often avoid talking about difficult issues so as to avoid conflict. What Percentage of Households Have Blended Families? Studies have shown that about 9% of married couple households and 11.5% of households where the parents are living together but not married, have stepchildren who live in the home. (Teachman & Teadrow, 2008) A survey done, called the HILDA survey, showed that 13% of households in the third wave of the survey, have stepchildren that either live in the home or do not and on some occasions both. A longitudinal study was done and indicated that out of the 1265 people involved in taking the study, 18.6% of them had lived in a stepfamily between the ages of 6 and 16 years old. This study included participants where the household was either remarried or cohabitating. (Nicholson, Fergusson, & Horwood, 1999). Many stepfamilies find challenges that make it very difficult to have normal functional interactions amongst its’ members. What Areas of Concern Are There for Children in Blended Families? Through research studies on blended families there seems to be a much greater risk of negative outcomes for children that are part of a blended family, as opposed to other children around  them who are from a first time marriage. (Amato, 2000; Bray, 1999: Hetherington & Kelly, 2002). When researchers have done studies on stepfamilies post-remarriage, they have found out very little about how the couple prepares themselves and their families before they re-marry or move in together to live as a whole family unit. There are a couple exceptions. A study done in 1989 in the US was conducted specifically to find out what couples do to prepare themselves and their families for a re-marriage. (Ganong & Coleman, 1989). More recently than that a study was done in Britain that questioned both the mothers and the stepfathers to find out what it was they did, if anything, to prepare prior to the re-marriage. (Smith & Robertson, 2008) The findings were that many re-married quickly and did not discuss what each other’s role would be when it came to parenting. (Ganong & Coleman, 1989; Robertson, 2008; Smith, 2008). Evidence appeared that showed there was very little, if any, help given to the children to help them with the transition into this new family life. (Robertson, 2008). How Common is Re-Marriage? Research shows that almost 20% of Americans are divorced and remarried. It has become increasingly common over time. Stepfamilies are becoming the fastest growing family unit. (Berger, 1995; Walsh, 2003b). Studies estimate that one in every two couples in the United States will divorce (Derma, 1999). What Are the Legal Ramifications of a Blended Family? Legal battles can become very expensive and are very complicated. Centuries ago, it was said that the children â€Å"belonged† to the father and so when a marriage ended, the children would stay with the father (Knibiehler, 1995). This was due large in part to the father having to financially support, educate and protect his children much like the father figure of Christian Mythology (Friedman, 1995). Around the time of the Industrial Revolution came domesticity. With that came the idea and emphasis that a child’s need to be emotionally nurtured was more important. That did not change the father’s legal obligations to financially support, educate and protect his children. With that, the  father’s role became one more of support while the mother’s role took the lead as the one who provided the children with emotional nurturance (Jacob, 1988). The one exception to the rule that the mother should have custody of the children, was that she be proven to be the cause for the end of the marriage. If that could be proven, she risked losing her property and her children. Around 1975, the idea of â€Å"no-fault† divorces was starting to have an impact on legislation (Fogarty, 2001). While the arguments for this type of divorce were mostly moral ones, the leaders of politics and religion were arguing that we had lost what once held our society together. Another big part of â€Å"no fault† divorce proceedings that nobody gave much attention to for a long period of time, was how violence or abuse within the marriage and family should affect the outcome. Very slowly did family courts begin to take in to consideration the unacceptable behaviors towards spouses and children. Then they began to make decisions based more on those findings. What Things Help a Blended Family to Be Successful? According to Visher, Visher & Pasley, 2003, becoming a blended family is a very complicated process that involves transitioning from one’s previous life and household to a whole new life and possibly household where things may be very different than before. There are many things to be thought about when choosing to blend a family. Several things must be examined since they may influence how the new family blends together. It is important to know the experiences of the previous marriage, for both parties. It is also important to know how the continued contact with the previous spouse is handled. Also important is how each spouse differs when it comes to personal maturity, the experiences each has had throughout their lives and what social status they hold. Finally, knowing what each partner considers the norm and what each ones expectations are (Swenson, 1997). Understanding how to help families of remarriage to blend successfully is an important outline for research, intervention and prevention efforts within blended families (Von Eye & Schuster, 2000). Using this approach helps to guide families when they face challenges or difficult times within their blended family (Hawley, 2000;Walsh, 1998b;, 2003a). When talking about resilience in a blended family, a lot of things are brought into the mix. Risk factors such as stressful events or bad conditions are weighed against protective factors such a family and community support to help blended families and their children to be successful in working through the hard times (Norman, 2000). According to McCubbin and McCubbin, (1988), there are certain dimensions, characteristics and features that must be looked at in order to help a blended family be more resilient to the hard times. They look at resistance to disruption in the event of a change and how well a person adapts in a critical situation. Walsh (1996) came up with the idea of relational resilience. Models have been created to test these factors. The first model, the pre-crisis ABCX model looks at the A (stressor), B (resource), and C (definition of the stressor) which help families protect themselves and get through crisis. Second are the models that focus on before and after crisis factors and the FAAR Model that was developed by McCubbin and Patterson (McCubbin et al., 1996). Last is the Typology Model of Family Adjustment and Adaptation, developed by McCubbin and McCubbin (McCubbin et al., 1996). This model focuses on what patterns are used in the way the family functions and what each persons role is in adjusting and adapting during adversity or crisis. According to Walsh (1998b), making a blended family successful and helping them to stay together can be accomplished by encouraging the family’s belief system, a supportive community, communication with one another and support within the family structure, acknowledging that some adversity it very normal and standing together as a family and believeing that you can achieve what you set out to accomplish. How is Attachment in Stepfamilies Affected? Bowlby (1973) has found that while there is an endless amount of research done on attachment, very little of that has been done on stepfamilies. He found that the disruption of bonds that a child has may make it very hard to form secure attachments otherwise in life, therefore, leading to possible psychological disorders. Separation from a parent and conflict with a new stepparent may  cause problems with attachment and adjusting in the future (Henry & Holmes 1998). These types of situations often involve some form of threat (whether it be real or not) making one of the parents more unavailable (Kobak 1999). There was some speculation that a child being raised in a stepfamily would for sure have less secure attachments than those raised by their biological parents still together. They did state that insecurities may be part of the stress of divorce and remarriage (Love and Murdock 2004). As stated by Robert S. Feldman (2011), more than 5 million couples who are each others second marriages have at least one child that is a stepchild. He states that often times, a child’s role is unclear and they are not sure of what is expected of them. Children may not be sure what their responsibilities are as a part of the new family or how they should treat their new â€Å"parent† or â€Å"siblings†. Feldman also states that blending into a new family seems to be easier for children that are school age as opposed to teenagers. He states that it is due to several different things. The family’s financial situation usually improves with a remarriage and the addition of a second income. There are also more people in the family to share chores and responsibilities with as well as more people to have a social relationship with (Greene, Anderson, & Hetherington, 2003; Hetherington & Elmore, 2003). Though there is not much research on blended families and every aspect of the changes, challenges and success’s, it is clear that raising a blended family involves a lot of planning, preparing and nurturing on the part of the children to make it successful for everyone involved.